{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ff71697-0665-400d-98cd-8a98475b851f", "symbol": "COA", "name": "Coats Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.041, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.1, "architecture_energy": 9.28, "architecture_maturity": 54.034, "architecture_confidence": 71.73, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.8, "rotation_up": 30.91, "upward_expansion": 19.26, "deceleration": 43.25, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 60.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.806767, 0.794882, 0.80035, 0.810319 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.8645, "trend_reference": 0.824278, "distance_from_trend": 0.048797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.786802, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098751, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.348907, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011413, "excess_performance": -0.039823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008501, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.577546, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10884002, "relative_activity": 0.711413, "balance": 0.577546, "dry_up": 1.111826, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050511, "annualized_volatility": 0.24283, "from_high_reference": -0.100966, "from_low_reference": 0.250362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.824278, "fair_value_reference": 0.786802, "structural_low": 0.7315, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.048383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.002425, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.252555, "worst_return": -0.123338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.089898, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.028676, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.189304, "worst_return": -0.090959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.153791, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.092705, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.31496, "worst_return": -0.155972, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16954097.4, "trend": 0.823783, "fair_value": 0.784963, "relative_strength": -12.214185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.359814, "energy": 63.017065, "activity_lines": [ 0.767467, 0.777936, 0.794708, 0.80906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.802, "volume": 23519915, "typical_volume": 16954822.4, "trend": 0.823201, "fair_value": 0.785753, "relative_strength": -8.142543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.998699, "energy": 36.376347, "activity_lines": [ 0.777133, 0.7807, 0.794411, 0.807655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8645, "volume": 10884002, "typical_volume": 15299143.1, "trend": 0.824278, "fair_value": 0.786802, "relative_strength": -1.348907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.100396, "energy": 9.279507, "activity_lines": [ 0.806767, 0.794882, 0.80035, 0.810319 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }