{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ff9410a-9f60-4863-a631-f4b9c2ef53a0", "symbol": "UMD", "name": "UMT United Mobility Technology AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.914, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.723, "architecture_energy": 83.743, "architecture_maturity": 41.487, "architecture_confidence": 90.889, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 16.46, "upward_expansion": 20.03, "deceleration": 37.32, "rotation_down": 68.9, "downward_expansion": 93.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.042333, 1.082182, 1.140524, 1.201645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.995, "trend_reference": 1.273333, "distance_from_trend": -0.218586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.73651, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.733709, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.771513, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.284173, "excess_performance": -0.348812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.733709, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.446276, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135, "relative_activity": 0.020065, "balance": 1.446276, "dry_up": 0.714349, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081562, "annualized_volatility": 0.446729, "from_high_reference": -0.767523, "from_low_reference": 0.041885 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.273333, "fair_value_reference": 3.73651, "structural_low": 0.955, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.038186, "positive_rate": 0.395349, "directional_follow_through": 0.581395, "median_excess_return": -0.058424, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.421189, "worst_return": -0.339721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.177094, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.177957, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.433498, "worst_return": -0.523474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.311927, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.263355, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.521127, "worst_return": -0.73545, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080357, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.904233, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.404167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.512727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.144, 1.164545, 1.248952, 1.282032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.12, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10828.65, "trend": 1.294333, "fair_value": 4.260708, "relative_strength": -34.759094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.413763, "energy": 48.785243, "activity_lines": [ 1.134, 1.150182, 1.231286, 1.270194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.14, "volume": 21914, "typical_volume": 8237.4, "trend": 1.289333, "fair_value": 4.177311, "relative_strength": -30.417495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.32878, "energy": 44.767598, "activity_lines": [ 1.132, 1.144364, 1.216595, 1.260237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.17, "volume": 4103, "typical_volume": 7810.8, "trend": 1.288167, "fair_value": 4.085772, "relative_strength": -26.613401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.332713, "energy": 56.537373, "activity_lines": [ 1.141333, 1.146909, 1.206452, 1.252538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.1, "volume": 6051, "typical_volume": 7437.5, "trend": 1.2865, "fair_value": 3.97167, "relative_strength": -30.504308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.119049, "energy": 52.100577, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.137636, 1.190548, 1.240398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.97, "volume": 8936, "typical_volume": 7048.65, "trend": 1.279167, "fair_value": 3.853529, "relative_strength": -38.844207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.660787, "energy": 76.620294, "activity_lines": [ 1.077333, 1.105818, 1.163214, 1.219978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.995, "volume": 135, "typical_volume": 6728.15, "trend": 1.273333, "fair_value": 3.73651, "relative_strength": -37.771513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.723227, "energy": 83.742923, "activity_lines": [ 1.042333, 1.082182, 1.140524, 1.201645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }