{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ffb353b-8249-4aa3-a159-6fec8434f9cc", "symbol": "002101", "name": "Guangdong Hongtu Technology (holdings) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.159, "architecture_energy": 40.897, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.168, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.53, "rotation_up": 26.81, "upward_expansion": 13.19, "deceleration": 66.92, "rotation_down": 39.73, "downward_expansion": 69.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.769333, 8.76929, 9.012628, 9.547683 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.74, "trend_reference": 10.352936, "distance_from_trend": -0.155795, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.246077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.286302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.034064, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.277686, "excess_performance": -0.285086, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155795, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.286302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.270341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069588, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277686, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.409176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23669261, "relative_activity": 0.876745, "balance": 0.409176, "dry_up": 1.283512, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067533, "annualized_volatility": 0.300741, "from_high_reference": -0.411844, "from_low_reference": 0.097446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.352936, "fair_value_reference": 12.246077, "structural_low": 7.963945, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.012298, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.016825, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.167158, "worst_return": -0.152653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.098166, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.081202, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.26647, "worst_return": -0.199359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.138115, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.099253, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.433628, "worst_return": -0.331465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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8.830787, 9.403687, 10.032549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.04, "volume": 44633781, "typical_volume": 26881931.5, "trend": 10.713603, "fair_value": 12.444953, "relative_strength": -23.895693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.707744, "energy": 46.13438, "activity_lines": [ 8.949255, 8.835913, 9.307315, 9.918101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.35, "volume": 42241514, "typical_volume": 27021824.75, "trend": 10.585603, "fair_value": 12.374325, "relative_strength": -29.197683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.482655, "energy": 53.689806, "activity_lines": [ 8.790069, 8.734857, 9.162229, 9.765611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.94, "volume": 28058043, "typical_volume": 27063095.55, "trend": 10.47227, "fair_value": 12.306934, "relative_strength": -22.253475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.449346, "energy": 42.698931, "activity_lines": [ 8.810239, 8.765982, 9.09, 9.659443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.74, "volume": 23669261, "typical_volume": 26996748.35, "trend": 10.352936, "fair_value": 12.246077, "relative_strength": -27.034064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.158639, "energy": 40.896749, "activity_lines": [ 8.769333, 8.76929, 9.012628, 9.547683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }