{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ffb8e7e-334b-48ba-982a-7e82ab5e86a1", "symbol": "000633", "name": "Xinjiang Hejin Holding Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.75, "architecture_energy": 53.04, "architecture_maturity": 92.923, "architecture_confidence": 90.113, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.25, "rotation_up": 28.48, "upward_expansion": 9.57, "deceleration": 60.87, "rotation_down": 46.75, "downward_expansion": 80.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.944, 4.958727, 5.370667, 5.796022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.16, "trend_reference": 6.385667, "distance_from_trend": -0.19194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.942179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.759341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.340733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131632, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.454098, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46447621, "relative_activity": 1.177735, "balance": 0.454098, "dry_up": 1.242092, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094067, "annualized_volatility": 0.344162, "from_high_reference": -0.451064, "from_low_reference": 0.172727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.385667, "fair_value_reference": 5.942179, "structural_low": 4.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.02261, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.015768, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.456401, "worst_return": -0.191529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.06891, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.016761, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.697897, "worst_return": -0.29128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015988, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.077665, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.652008, "worst_return": -0.161859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.92, "volume": 54226090, "typical_volume": 40816135.8, "trend": 6.627333, "fair_value": 5.982179, "relative_strength": -27.819751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.258887, "energy": 74.764033, "activity_lines": [ 4.916, 5.124909, 5.674286, 6.110366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.69, "volume": 56780221, "typical_volume": 40166464.7, "trend": 6.541, "fair_value": 5.966667, "relative_strength": -30.961729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.641554, "energy": 67.044124, "activity_lines": [ 4.830667, 5.000909, 5.53819, 5.985376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9, "volume": 38488900, "typical_volume": 39480836.4, "trend": 6.454, "fair_value": 5.953141, "relative_strength": -26.26429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.537588, "energy": 62.250208, "activity_lines": [ 4.847333, 4.944545, 5.436429, 5.879505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.16, "volume": 46447621, "typical_volume": 39438076.4, "trend": 6.385667, "fair_value": 5.942179, "relative_strength": -25.759341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.750056, "energy": 53.039774, "activity_lines": [ 4.944, 4.958727, 5.370667, 5.796022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }