{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ffbd99e-30dc-48a4-98ac-ece83bdf5798", "symbol": "CGO", "name": "Calamos Global Total Return Fund", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.732, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.658, "architecture_energy": 16.528, "architecture_maturity": 58.095, "architecture_confidence": 78.414, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.0, "rotation_up": 23.8, "upward_expansion": 49.91, "deceleration": 81.77, "rotation_down": 36.47, "downward_expansion": 27.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.943928, 13.099985, 13.155262, 12.867949 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.18, "trend_reference": 12.518891, "distance_from_trend": 0.052809, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.044699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312135, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.084276, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111364, "excess_performance": -0.07609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052809, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063281, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088256, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018506, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111364, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 157393, "relative_activity": 1.093111, "balance": 0.828183, "dry_up": 1.09366, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052919, "annualized_volatility": 0.257439, "from_high_reference": -0.066248, "from_low_reference": 0.26903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.518891, "fair_value_reference": 10.044699, "structural_low": 10.517136, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022275, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.016467, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.160169, "worst_return": -0.048611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033855, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.00229, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.270305, "worst_return": -0.015921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084566, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.004458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266379, "worst_return": -0.033994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.112874, "energy": 34.827834, "activity_lines": [ 13.439653, 13.475042, 13.08519, 12.738742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.89, "volume": 170154, "typical_volume": 147177.85, "trend": 12.35643, "fair_value": 9.940496, "relative_strength": -1.692032, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.194907, "energy": 23.405079, "activity_lines": [ 13.260629, 13.366772, 13.110717, 12.777587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.77, "volume": 108326, "typical_volume": 140747.05, "trend": 12.410693, "fair_value": 9.973817, "relative_strength": -0.956231, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.406063, "energy": 17.93447, "activity_lines": [ 13.062975, 13.245254, 13.122269, 12.804269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.68, "volume": 194015, "typical_volume": 142973.65, "trend": 12.462272, "fair_value": 10.007703, "relative_strength": -2.100051, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.590034, "energy": 16.970345, "activity_lines": [ 12.903758, 13.119902, 13.118446, 12.821644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.18, "volume": 157393, "typical_volume": 143986.3, "trend": 12.518891, "fair_value": 10.044699, "relative_strength": -3.084276, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.658213, "energy": 16.527811, "activity_lines": [ 12.943928, 13.099985, 13.155262, 12.867949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }