{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8004f251-7657-425b-80a5-601e2b313a41", "symbol": "ALHRS", "name": "Hydrogen-Refueling-Solutions SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.375, "architecture_energy": 86.039, "architecture_maturity": 18.542, "architecture_confidence": 84.93, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.94, "rotation_up": 8.04, "upward_expansion": 21.33, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 77.7, "downward_expansion": 94.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.300133, 1.418727, 1.542933, 1.553411 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.312, "trend_reference": 1.555933, "distance_from_trend": -0.156776, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.025043, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.782242, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.970698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136842, "excess_performance": -0.190153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099318, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.782242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005854, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675066, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240632, "relative_activity": 1.7519, "balance": 0.675066, "dry_up": 1.000054, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092871, "annualized_volatility": 0.757448, "from_high_reference": -0.629379, "from_low_reference": 0.214815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.555933, "fair_value_reference": 6.025043, "structural_low": 1.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.145642, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.09434, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.145642, "worst_return": -0.145642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.014908, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038538, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014908, "worst_return": 0.014908, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.537844, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.672447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.537844, "worst_return": -0.537844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.697821, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.741725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.697821, "worst_return": -0.697821, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-03-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058201, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.236842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048165, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.385524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.697691, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192399, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.317241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.383871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.303125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020218, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 14126, "typical_volume": 46999.5, "trend": 21.152667, "fair_value": 25.558636, "relative_strength": -9.531159, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.961538, "energy": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.408, "volume": 220685, "typical_volume": 177695.7, "trend": 1.613067, "fair_value": 6.527376, "relative_strength": -36.553646, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.556124, "energy": 17.559441, "activity_lines": [ 1.600933, 1.662255, 1.666286, 1.630194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.338, "volume": 64792, "typical_volume": 168659.95, "trend": 1.606333, "fair_value": 6.400056, "relative_strength": -38.661472, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.79083, "energy": 44.994944, "activity_lines": [ 1.498267, 1.598691, 1.639152, 1.612447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.286, "volume": 66761, "typical_volume": 134531.6, "trend": 1.587867, "fair_value": 6.274325, "relative_strength": -40.21709, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.214309, "energy": 67.295313, "activity_lines": [ 1.4024, 1.5308, 1.606171, 1.591781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.25, "volume": 177264, "typical_volume": 132429.2, "trend": 1.568867, "fair_value": 6.149966, "relative_strength": -41.652931, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.348627, "energy": 77.879952, "activity_lines": [ 1.3248, 1.464836, 1.57101, 1.569983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.312, "volume": 240632, "typical_volume": 137354.9, "trend": 1.555933, "fair_value": 6.025043, "relative_strength": -38.970698, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.3748, "energy": 86.038675, "activity_lines": [ 1.300133, 1.418727, 1.542933, 1.553411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }