{ "ticker": { "uuid": "800d30db-7c98-44df-b818-74102d707467", "symbol": "002617", "name": "Roshow Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.364, "architecture_energy": 78.521, "architecture_maturity": 21.28, "architecture_confidence": 79.636, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.97, "rotation_up": 10.73, "upward_expansion": 20.3, "deceleration": 34.22, "rotation_down": 76.31, "downward_expansion": 91.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.289333, 7.181091, 7.801333, 7.971548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.44, "trend_reference": 8.214333, "distance_from_trend": -0.216005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.154936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.242294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251163, "excess_performance": -0.258563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043586, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251163, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 443161446, "relative_activity": 0.757735, "balance": 1.049048, "dry_up": 0.990439, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175227, "annualized_volatility": 0.647064, "from_high_reference": -0.449573, "from_low_reference": 0.156194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.214333, "fair_value_reference": 7.154936, "structural_low": 5.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.00552, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.010357, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.296595, "worst_return": -0.277526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.094914, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.035509, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.269071, "worst_return": -0.207602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.180822, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.088404, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.288499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 567344506.95, "trend": 8.47, "fair_value": 7.196603, "relative_strength": -9.855324, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.176131, "energy": 26.47583, "activity_lines": [ 8.952, 8.946, 8.628571, 8.563634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.96, "volume": 836215613, "typical_volume": 578536143.7, "trend": 8.397333, "fair_value": 7.184295, "relative_strength": -29.500041, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.31483, "energy": 23.914709, "activity_lines": [ 7.955333, 8.41, 8.388571, 8.401699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.78, "volume": 579437511, "typical_volume": 582632386.65, "trend": 8.330333, "fair_value": 7.170769, "relative_strength": -31.351807, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.223086, "energy": 70.423642, "activity_lines": [ 7.068, 7.878545, 8.147667, 8.232839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.11, "volume": 458220910, "typical_volume": 581943529.2, "trend": 8.269667, "fair_value": 7.16109, "relative_strength": -25.806382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.700025, "energy": 78.393937, "activity_lines": [ 6.505333, 7.472182, 7.952429, 8.089591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.44, "volume": 443161446, "typical_volume": 584850364.5, "trend": 8.214333, "fair_value": 7.154936, "relative_strength": -25.242294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.364284, "energy": 78.521046, "activity_lines": [ 6.289333, 7.181091, 7.801333, 7.971548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }