{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80127df4-9db9-4ac7-96fa-740e2e262950", "symbol": "AWSRIT", "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hCHF dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.658, "architecture_energy": 51.982, "architecture_maturity": 63.428, "architecture_confidence": 74.128, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.71, "rotation_up": 45.67, "upward_expansion": 70.65, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 27.76, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.0848, 17.091091, 16.847648, 16.461235 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.327999, "trend_reference": 16.039226, "distance_from_trend": 0.080351, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.778812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.920265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12789, "excess_performance": 0.045007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080351, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045966, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019365, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009203, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070386, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.93514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7593, "relative_activity": 0.66172, "balance": 1.93514, "dry_up": 0.397659, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019542, "annualized_volatility": 0.136581, "from_high_reference": -0.002992, "from_low_reference": 0.23819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.039226, "fair_value_reference": 13.778812, "structural_low": 14.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014765, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.01225, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.094282, "worst_return": -0.0502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.04759, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.026961, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.152177, "worst_return": -0.119076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.109262, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.044733, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.130188, "worst_return": -0.011395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.50587, "energy": 79.569772, "activity_lines": [ 17.196, 17.038909, 16.510705, 16.167283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.914, "volume": 1964, "typical_volume": 15046.45, "trend": 15.856066, "fair_value": 13.670729, "relative_strength": -0.134758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.322209, "energy": 63.900828, "activity_lines": [ 17.114133, 17.045091, 16.596819, 16.23957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.85, "volume": 2060, "typical_volume": 12285.6, "trend": 15.912931, "fair_value": 13.704065, "relative_strength": -0.377335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.53132, "energy": 57.206432, "activity_lines": [ 17.016, 17.0316, 16.669971, 16.303695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.002001, "volume": 6635, "typical_volume": 12365.35, "trend": 15.975194, "fair_value": 13.739953, "relative_strength": 0.400107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.108312, "energy": 47.862297, "activity_lines": [ 16.998267, 17.035564, 16.748657, 16.373958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.327999, "volume": 7593, "typical_volume": 11474.65, "trend": 16.039226, "fair_value": 13.778812, "relative_strength": 0.920265, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.657898, "energy": 51.982072, "activity_lines": [ 17.0848, 17.091091, 16.847648, 16.461235 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }