{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8014b44d-f06c-4cd7-bf9e-27c22b60f9de", "symbol": "TX", "name": "Ternium SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.423, "architecture_energy": 72.602, "architecture_maturity": 21.566, "architecture_confidence": 84.185, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.49, "rotation_up": 70.24, "upward_expansion": 85.69, "deceleration": 48.52, "rotation_down": 13.51, "downward_expansion": 17.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.470667, 47.487091, 46.371224, 44.875444 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 53.9, "trend_reference": 43.308048, "distance_from_trend": 0.244572, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.500495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.608931, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.947026, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.276723, "excess_performance": 0.151098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.244572, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087328, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.608931, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.199956, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.21947, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058083, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.276723, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.547596, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5210753, "relative_activity": 2.363202, "balance": 2.547596, "dry_up": 1.708723, "accumulation_observations": 8, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073606, "annualized_volatility": 0.353625, "from_high_reference": -0.008827, "from_low_reference": 0.809226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.308048, "fair_value_reference": 33.500495, "structural_low": 35.869304, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.037176, "positive_rate": 0.678571, "directional_follow_through": 0.678571, "median_excess_return": 0.011677, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.229637, "worst_return": -0.213567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024204, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.00904, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.168224, "worst_return": -0.329998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.079059, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012751, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.250445, "worst_return": -0.415122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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45.560727, 44.848965, 43.720701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.24, "volume": 3131505, "typical_volume": 1986912.5, "trend": 42.807889, "fair_value": 33.3594, "relative_strength": 16.159346, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.078846, "energy": 36.544029, "activity_lines": [ 46.656667, 46.120727, 45.418163, 44.159823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.9, "volume": 5210753, "typical_volume": 2204954.7, "trend": 43.308048, "fair_value": 33.500495, "relative_strength": 21.947026, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.422654, "energy": 72.602449, "activity_lines": [ 49.470667, 47.487091, 46.371224, 44.875444 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }