{ "ticker": { "uuid": "801583c0-046f-4d1f-ae95-4dfd0c17858f", "symbol": "601728", "name": "China Telecom Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.412, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.074, "architecture_energy": 40.26, "architecture_maturity": 16.501, "architecture_confidence": 57.923, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.92, "rotation_up": 67.78, "upward_expansion": 76.48, "deceleration": 64.03, "rotation_down": 11.36, "downward_expansion": 5.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.149333, 5.950552, 5.919416, 5.904588 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.18, "trend_reference": 5.903121, "distance_from_trend": 0.046904, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.182123, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000343, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.807364, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.03, "excess_performance": 0.073204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046904, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044768, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028752, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177914, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 820334522, "relative_activity": 1.214362, "balance": 0.846417, "dry_up": 1.204639, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068685, "annualized_volatility": 0.232981, "from_high_reference": -0.175605, "from_low_reference": 0.179389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.903121, "fair_value_reference": 6.182123, "structural_low": 5.24, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013109, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.013385, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.058099, "worst_return": -0.07772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.083791, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.101014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.079048, "worst_return": -0.088534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.060609, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017775, "worst_return": -0.138992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061341, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058543, "worst_return": -0.181225, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055035, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.267442, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007472, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011904, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018617, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020134, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", 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"activity_lines": [ 5.552667, 5.717305, 5.803866, 5.843609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.01, "volume": 642684737, "typical_volume": 688427280.45, "trend": 5.931788, "fair_value": 6.163157, "relative_strength": -1.614921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.40915, "energy": 41.265447, "activity_lines": [ 5.681333, 5.748945, 5.81961, 5.847171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.16, "volume": 972847497, "typical_volume": 691754824.25, "trend": 5.911121, "fair_value": 6.169523, "relative_strength": 0.098012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.701683, "energy": 6.743226, "activity_lines": [ 5.862667, 5.806971, 5.848593, 5.861894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.3, "volume": 819199377, "typical_volume": 678547545.85, "trend": 5.907121, "fair_value": 6.175745, "relative_strength": 2.330223, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.009255, "energy": 28.202835, "activity_lines": [ 6.058667, 5.891855, 5.890004, 5.886983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.18, "volume": 820334522, "typical_volume": 675527285.75, "trend": 5.903121, "fair_value": 6.182123, "relative_strength": -1.807364, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.073542, "energy": 40.260348, "activity_lines": [ 6.149333, 5.950552, 5.919416, 5.904588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }