{ "ticker": { "uuid": "801a0554-0dec-49c8-8c6a-48643228e26b", "symbol": "CYH", "name": "Community Health Systems Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.085, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.78, "architecture_energy": 24.375, "architecture_maturity": 30.753, "architecture_confidence": 67.361, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.04, "rotation_up": 21.93, "upward_expansion": 13.2, "deceleration": 60.87, "rotation_down": 54.19, "downward_expansion": 43.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.968, 3.129636, 3.064143, 3.068129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.0, "trend_reference": 3.103333, "distance_from_trend": -0.033298, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.386859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114224, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.280453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047619, "excess_performance": -0.173244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033298, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114224, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08082, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082811, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.035213, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6748322, "relative_activity": 0.799316, "balance": 1.035213, "dry_up": 1.374167, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115821, "annualized_volatility": 0.590635, "from_high_reference": -0.322799, "from_low_reference": 0.247401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.103333, "fair_value_reference": 3.386859, "structural_low": 2.405, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.024851, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.009937, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.507553, "worst_return": -0.357621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.058676, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018104, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.797101, "worst_return": -0.590403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049342, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032123, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.08042, "worst_return": -0.624214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.259777, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.448544, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.031949, "worst_return": -0.718553, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169863, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.140065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264368, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024169, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.269795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.239024, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.17341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075269, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.33, "volume": 5904640, "typical_volume": 7884907.6, "trend": 4.688, "fair_value": 8.005705, "relative_strength": -24.509319, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", 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2.971333, 3.03428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.9, "volume": 8222198, "typical_volume": 7773652.85, "trend": 3.128667, "fair_value": 3.424936, "relative_strength": 12.710426, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.639089, "energy": 49.412352, "activity_lines": [ 3.377333, 3.141455, 3.052286, 3.084753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.57, "volume": 7684702, "typical_volume": 7755548.2, "trend": 3.139667, "fair_value": 3.419808, "relative_strength": 2.252393, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.699005, "energy": 58.60633, "activity_lines": [ 3.496667, 3.242, 3.099524, 3.113226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.3, "volume": 11680908, "typical_volume": 7911529.95, "trend": 3.141, "fair_value": 3.412949, "relative_strength": -3.458752, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.787007, "energy": 52.4551, "activity_lines": [ 3.470667, 3.282727, 3.121, 3.12357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.73, "volume": 17156762, "typical_volume": 8476622.75, "trend": 3.124333, "fair_value": 3.403013, "relative_strength": -19.426505, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.653492, "energy": 21.10895, "activity_lines": [ 3.242667, 3.210545, 3.088952, 3.097054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 10820327, "typical_volume": 8583224.05, "trend": 3.114, "fair_value": 3.391923, "relative_strength": -18.468778, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.139502, "energy": 18.546652, "activity_lines": [ 3.054, 3.150909, 3.065571, 3.075484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.0, "volume": 6748322, "typical_volume": 8442625.9, "trend": 3.103333, "fair_value": 3.386859, "relative_strength": -15.280453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.780223, "energy": 24.37549, "activity_lines": [ 2.968, 3.129636, 3.064143, 3.068129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }