{ "ticker": { "uuid": "801bfe41-56bc-4885-aef0-2a71827f72aa", "symbol": "000691", "name": "Gansu Yatai Industrial Developent Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.948, "architecture_energy": 26.478, "architecture_maturity": 62.93, "architecture_confidence": 85.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.57, "rotation_up": 21.33, "upward_expansion": 55.53, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 41.18, "downward_expansion": 23.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.847333, 10.444545, 9.92819, 9.517398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.83, "trend_reference": 9.151667, "distance_from_trend": 0.074121, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.862885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.676649, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.006269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.152403, "excess_performance": 0.145004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03067, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.676649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185623, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030063, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19432, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.824239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68840483, "relative_activity": 1.707099, "balance": 0.824239, "dry_up": 1.552833, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122701, "annualized_volatility": 0.490456, "from_high_reference": -0.245587, "from_low_reference": 0.715532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.151667, "fair_value_reference": 5.862885, "structural_low": 7.11, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.055879, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.001181, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.440079, "worst_return": -0.211494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015526, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.032909, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.347741, "worst_return": -0.271663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.114716, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.179601, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.768173, "worst_return": -0.12605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.114894, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.051554, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.016393, "worst_return": -0.15121, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062295, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036304, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006757, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032558, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.723592, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": 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"close": 9.4, "volume": 65543641, "typical_volume": 36832133.85, "trend": 9.128333, "fair_value": 5.801859, "relative_strength": 3.091131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.205618, "energy": 36.916115, "activity_lines": [ 10.693333, 10.762909, 9.869619, 9.462925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.27, "volume": 54196306, "typical_volume": 38310450.95, "trend": 9.127333, "fair_value": 5.83109, "relative_strength": 2.612023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.669602, "energy": 23.139286, "activity_lines": [ 10.079333, 10.559636, 9.874286, 9.472065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.83, "volume": 68840483, "typical_volume": 40326008.5, "trend": 9.151667, "fair_value": 5.862885, "relative_strength": 3.006269, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.948143, "energy": 26.478152, "activity_lines": [ 9.847333, 10.444545, 9.92819, 9.517398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }