{ "ticker": { "uuid": "801da4a8-934b-44f4-9fa5-27a3312e59c9", "symbol": "2222", "name": "Saudi Arabian Oil Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.993, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.127, "architecture_energy": 10.122, "architecture_maturity": 27.956, "architecture_confidence": 90.968, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.21, "rotation_up": 25.89, "upward_expansion": 51.03, "deceleration": 90.63, "rotation_down": 26.85, "downward_expansion": 24.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.601333, 26.568363, 26.782223, 26.669284 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.5, "trend_reference": 26.313922, "distance_from_trend": 0.007071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.786191, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027682, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.592445, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061464, "excess_performance": 0.093294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007071, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036295, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027682, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01278, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065924, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061464, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.230793, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60875668, "relative_activity": 1.117013, "balance": 1.230793, "dry_up": 0.763467, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021652, "annualized_volatility": 0.125535, "from_high_reference": -0.040316, "from_low_reference": 0.194718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.313922, "fair_value_reference": 25.786191, "structural_low": 24.087821, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005669, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011051, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.048611, "worst_return": -0.085133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034776, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.011586, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.182734, "worst_return": -0.081806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075348, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166141, "worst_return": -0.158161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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5.331142, "energy": 22.719591, "activity_lines": [ 26.442666, 26.730794, 26.852686, 26.515005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.68, "volume": 33170140, "typical_volume": 62825264.3, "trend": 25.968417, "fair_value": 25.797484, "relative_strength": 9.472135, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.428521, "energy": 18.602537, "activity_lines": [ 26.492, 26.688118, 26.852813, 26.56869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.84, "volume": 41114877, "typical_volume": 58784590.4, "trend": 26.092988, "fair_value": 25.795756, "relative_strength": 9.014368, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.652355, "energy": 9.617438, "activity_lines": [ 26.628, 26.677854, 26.857043, 26.624921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.48, "volume": 31270885, "typical_volume": 53238017.7, "trend": 26.199384, "fair_value": 25.790909, "relative_strength": 9.349331, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.206316, "energy": 11.51408, "activity_lines": [ 26.622667, 26.611527, 26.819361, 26.64989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.5, "volume": 60875668, "typical_volume": 54498632.25, "trend": 26.313922, "fair_value": 25.786191, "relative_strength": 6.592445, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.127038, "energy": 10.122122, "activity_lines": [ 26.601333, 26.568363, 26.782223, 26.669284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }