{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "801e6c6e-661a-4a16-85a4-2a7522d93226",
    "symbol": "UEQD",
    "name": "UBS Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF hEUR acc",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 74.613,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.867,
    "architecture_energy": 59.129,
    "architecture_maturity": 63.377,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.035,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.7,
        "rotation_up": 52.46,
        "upward_expansion": 79.9,
        "deceleration": 68.8,
        "rotation_down": 27.62,
        "downward_expansion": 8.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        35.292067,
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        34.834738,
        34.197264
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 36.205002,
    "trend_reference": 33.492033,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.081003,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 27.99824,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293117,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.468749,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.115579,
    "excess_performance": 0.050939,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081003,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030557,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.293117,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005532,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024687,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.071229,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115579,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.444852,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4625,
      "relative_activity": 0.237696,
      "balance": 0.444852,
      "dry_up": 1.668153,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018531,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.132672,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004263,
      "from_low_reference": 0.212167
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 33.492033,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.99824,
      "structural_low": 29.868,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.010086,
        "positive_rate": 0.710526,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.710526,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007683,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.062596,
        "worst_return": -0.092463,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
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        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010359,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.099709,
        "worst_return": -0.072854,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.070048,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053562,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.171885,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.068949,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.196604,
        "worst_return": -0.112228,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.034048,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 26.749801,
        "relative_strength": 6.928154,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 19233.65,
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        "relative_strength": 7.894914,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 19864.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 32.6218,
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        "relative_strength": 7.589,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 32.7197,
        "fair_value": 27.306067,
        "relative_strength": 7.099071,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 32.928333,
        "fair_value": 27.480138,
        "relative_strength": 5.349418,
        "stage": 2,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.824282,
        "energy": 53.875673,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 16551.05,
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        "fair_value": 27.568631,
        "relative_strength": 2.396774,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 15961.2,
        "trend": 33.124933,
        "fair_value": 27.65549,
        "relative_strength": 5.706512,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 58.42671,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 34.915001,
        "volume": 47919,
        "typical_volume": 17843.6,
        "trend": 33.2161,
        "fair_value": 27.738965,
        "relative_strength": 5.289659,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.426908,
        "energy": 54.565592,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.994667,
          34.9878,
          34.406114,
          33.821428
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 34.792999,
        "volume": 3128,
        "typical_volume": 17089.95,
        "trend": 33.2934,
        "fair_value": 27.820567,
        "relative_strength": 3.591665,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.081359,
        "energy": 48.870882,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.9406,
          34.951127,
          34.521043,
          33.923163
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 34.713001,
        "volume": 74161,
        "typical_volume": 19639.35,
        "trend": 33.376033,
        "fair_value": 27.903561,
        "relative_strength": 1.077939,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.999777,
        "energy": 40.92742,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.875867,
          34.899673,
          34.615162,
          34.01475
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 36.205002,
        "volume": 4625,
        "typical_volume": 19457.6,
        "trend": 33.492033,
        "fair_value": 27.99824,
        "relative_strength": 2.468749,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.866929,
        "energy": 59.129344,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.292067,
          35.125837,
          34.834738,
          34.197264
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}