{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8024aace-315a-4ec1-9c48-09e420fbb242", "symbol": "QK9", "name": "iShares MSCI India Climate Transition ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.718, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.504, "architecture_energy": 7.902, "architecture_maturity": 15.254, "architecture_confidence": 59.49, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.84, "rotation_up": 32.27, "upward_expansion": 36.92, "deceleration": 33.82, "rotation_down": 24.34, "downward_expansion": 42.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.229999, 16.190909, 16.081, 16.108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.469999, "trend_reference": 16.301333, "distance_from_trend": 0.010347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.734167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071284, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.448753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054535, "excess_performance": -0.20937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04391, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071284, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017433, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.225478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17707, "relative_activity": 0.263628, "balance": 1.225478, "dry_up": 0.341293, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023633, "annualized_volatility": 0.156894, "from_high_reference": -0.131787, "from_low_reference": 0.100936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.301333, "fair_value_reference": 17.734167, "structural_low": 14.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.024417, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.035437, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.073295, "worst_return": -0.071297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056546, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.090714, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.067843, "worst_return": -0.09476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058064, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.12312, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.095658, "worst_return": -0.113219, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007688, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019651, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044801, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"relative_strength": -19.629435, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.179818, "energy": 17.110198, "activity_lines": [ 16.226666, 16.086, 16.005333, 16.184731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.059999, "volume": 30994, "typical_volume": 72598.25, "trend": 16.500333, "fair_value": 17.725064, "relative_strength": -20.49601, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.365359, "energy": 12.858301, "activity_lines": [ 16.19, 16.096545, 16.008857, 16.151828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.74, "volume": 19089, "typical_volume": 69563.2, "trend": 16.418667, "fair_value": 17.724808, "relative_strength": -22.612825, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.639241, "energy": 18.776189, "activity_lines": [ 16.029333, 16.05, 15.98719, 16.102774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.379999, "volume": 23904, "typical_volume": 68358.95, "trend": 16.350333, "fair_value": 17.729231, "relative_strength": -19.432945, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.670616, "energy": 4.984698, "activity_lines": [ 16.117333, 16.117818, 16.031238, 16.100279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.469999, "volume": 17707, "typical_volume": 67166.6, "trend": 16.301333, "fair_value": 17.734167, "relative_strength": -19.448753, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.503627, "energy": 7.902226, "activity_lines": [ 16.229999, 16.190909, 16.081, 16.108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }