{ "ticker": { "uuid": "803afdc3-f05a-48fd-9bb9-be4d13b7a26a", "symbol": "600458", "name": "Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.877, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.656, "architecture_energy": 67.227, "architecture_maturity": 12.467, "architecture_confidence": 72.803, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.79, "rotation_up": 10.75, "upward_expansion": 15.38, "deceleration": 36.56, "rotation_down": 74.69, "downward_expansion": 86.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.108382, 12.439058, 12.869565, 13.01916 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.58, "trend_reference": 13.323235, "distance_from_trend": -0.130842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.700462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.862777, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.207392, "excess_performance": -0.164188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010296, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096439, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003114, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.414662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83569929, "relative_activity": 0.803483, "balance": 1.414662, "dry_up": 1.222175, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147396, "annualized_volatility": 0.619594, "from_high_reference": -0.343889, "from_low_reference": 0.173404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.323235, "fair_value_reference": 11.700462, "structural_low": 9.86872, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.083812, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.027712, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.249377, "worst_return": -0.08086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.253363, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.188608, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.508591, "worst_return": -0.106693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.173916, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131399, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.547537, "worst_return": 0.109602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.361167, "energy": 34.255094, "activity_lines": [ 14.830822, 14.580944, 13.771577, 13.707076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.233133, "volume": 175447758, "typical_volume": 100221171.9, "trend": 13.547568, "fair_value": 11.695672, "relative_strength": -22.218714, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.577496, "energy": 26.806519, "activity_lines": [ 13.142938, 13.878715, 13.45819, 13.486452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.41, "volume": 133932184, "typical_volume": 104043945.2, "trend": 13.455902, "fair_value": 11.691897, "relative_strength": -21.51964, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.283203, "energy": 49.261327, "activity_lines": [ 11.876468, 13.249678, 13.183347, 13.284029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.15, "volume": 115521497, "typical_volume": 104720456.9, "trend": 13.379568, "fair_value": 11.693787, "relative_strength": -16.014467, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.204959, "energy": 54.519772, "activity_lines": [ 11.276665, 12.78955, 12.996694, 13.135261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.58, "volume": 83569929, "typical_volume": 104009547.95, "trend": 13.323235, "fair_value": 11.700462, "relative_strength": -14.862777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.65573, "energy": 67.226653, "activity_lines": [ 11.108382, 12.439058, 12.869565, 13.01916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }