{ "ticker": { "uuid": "803ed761-abfe-4e3f-bb78-5dfa971cdb01", "symbol": "CSNKY", "name": "iShares VII PLC - iShares Nikkei 225 ETF JPY Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.257, "architecture_energy": 30.893, "architecture_maturity": 67.607, "architecture_confidence": 84.364, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.36, "rotation_up": 26.33, "upward_expansion": 59.26, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 34.77, "downward_expansion": 20.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 361.017999, 368.256543, 362.674379, 350.465375 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 371.029999, "trend_reference": 334.989999, "distance_from_trend": 0.107585, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 254.946218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.455327, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.74535, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.205857, "excess_performance": 0.034965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.455327, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006882, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037454, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.205857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.527638, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12884, "relative_activity": 1.642016, "balance": 0.527638, "dry_up": 2.526971, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046772, "annualized_volatility": 0.260399, "from_high_reference": -0.069027, "from_low_reference": 0.516141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 334.989999, "fair_value_reference": 254.946218, "structural_low": 282.970001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002321, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.144528, "worst_return": -0.043256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005163, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.354492, "worst_return": -0.053766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055232, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.274, "worst_return": 0.021919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125428, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135495, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188575, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041369, "active": false }, { 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10.163301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.990889, "energy": 79.243854, "activity_lines": [ 385.215997, 377.235633, 356.751427, 342.959117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 354.470001, "volume": 16552, "typical_volume": 5618.75, "trend": 327.600334, "fair_value": 251.993398, "relative_strength": 3.42256, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.064856, "energy": 56.791449, "activity_lines": [ 375.226666, 374.531816, 358.199856, 344.859504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 354.880005, "volume": 18880, "typical_volume": 5927.0, "trend": 330.138667, "fair_value": 252.914424, "relative_strength": 3.421682, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.73125, "energy": 35.494224, "activity_lines": [ 366.423336, 371.821635, 359.542094, 346.619483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 351.209991, "volume": 30995, "typical_volume": 7314.8, "trend": 332.489999, "fair_value": 253.8625, "relative_strength": 1.385768, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.34826, "energy": 29.366383, "activity_lines": [ 359.228666, 368.230725, 360.293808, 347.978923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 371.029999, "volume": 12884, "typical_volume": 7846.45, "trend": 334.989999, "fair_value": 254.946218, "relative_strength": 3.74535, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.256742, "energy": 30.893412, "activity_lines": [ 361.017999, 368.256543, 362.674379, 350.465375 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }