{ "ticker": { "uuid": "803f30c9-d1e1-4b61-b922-9d6ee28221b9", "symbol": "EWW", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI MEXICO ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.894, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.885, "architecture_energy": 19.064, "architecture_maturity": 11.74, "architecture_confidence": 60.785, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.91, "rotation_up": 41.78, "upward_expansion": 64.02, "deceleration": 55.33, "rotation_down": 23.35, "downward_expansion": 14.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.418, 76.085157, 76.236815, 76.019664 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 77.52, "trend_reference": 75.869691, "distance_from_trend": 0.021752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.749183, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297424, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.739081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015221, "excess_performance": -0.140846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021752, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297424, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057801, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.839323, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9351533, "relative_activity": 1.377831, "balance": 1.839323, "dry_up": 0.905224, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039665, "annualized_volatility": 0.222997, "from_high_reference": -0.036689, "from_low_reference": 0.326656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.869691, "fair_value_reference": 59.749183, "structural_low": 68.586401, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005886, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.01895, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.140625, "worst_return": -0.120409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077242, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.142342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190015, "worst_return": -0.18528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063967, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.089183, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1857, "worst_return": -0.228454, 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.440479, "energy": 10.333946, "activity_lines": [ 75.304, 75.717088, 75.9232, 75.784788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.45, "volume": 4707090, "typical_volume": 7045380.4, "trend": 75.348377, "fair_value": 59.478943, "relative_strength": -0.663781, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.443885, "energy": 9.891495, "activity_lines": [ 75.242667, 75.625101, 75.937735, 75.802798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.81, "volume": 5292357, "typical_volume": 6781442.2, "trend": 75.620197, "fair_value": 59.609742, "relative_strength": -0.140067, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.812228, "energy": 8.23165, "activity_lines": [ 75.76, 75.792142, 76.068493, 75.897096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.52, "volume": 9351533, "typical_volume": 6787143.05, "trend": 75.869691, "fair_value": 59.749183, "relative_strength": -2.739081, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.884551, "energy": 19.064171, "activity_lines": [ 76.418, 76.085157, 76.236815, 76.019664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }