{ "ticker": { "uuid": "804e312c-27cd-4877-bc08-4b38e7189112", "symbol": "300012", "name": "Centre Testing International Group Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.967, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.961, "architecture_energy": 27.99, "architecture_maturity": 26.623, "architecture_confidence": 58.434, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.3, "rotation_up": 21.77, "upward_expansion": 14.35, "deceleration": 63.07, "rotation_down": 41.78, "downward_expansion": 64.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.862667, 13.832364, 14.276831, 14.550155 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.04, "trend_reference": 14.849763, "distance_from_trend": -0.05453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.37994, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.046581, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.087749, "excess_performance": -0.095149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006422, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049332, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439563, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144561312, "relative_activity": 1.207704, "balance": 0.439563, "dry_up": 1.391668, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072485, "annualized_volatility": 0.272672, "from_high_reference": -0.211616, "from_low_reference": 0.175168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.849763, "fair_value_reference": 13.37994, "structural_low": 12.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.008971, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.015838, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.351744, "worst_return": -0.194861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.027752, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001926, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.18952, "worst_return": -0.261905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003792, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044841, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.27737, "worst_return": -0.253659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.065463, "energy": 47.666449, "activity_lines": [ 13.816, 14.102727, 14.657698, 14.818062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.26, "volume": 224522849, "typical_volume": 115648609.25, "trend": 14.795623, "fair_value": 13.474055, "relative_strength": -5.921658, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.020637, "energy": 61.895831, "activity_lines": [ 13.606667, 13.882545, 14.497871, 14.718628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.39, "volume": 142691602, "typical_volume": 115441267.8, "trend": 14.796328, "fair_value": 13.444217, "relative_strength": -5.228758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.555581, "energy": 57.759471, "activity_lines": [ 13.484, 13.738727, 14.364298, 14.627942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.38, "volume": 154550913, "typical_volume": 117540909.8, "trend": 14.829373, "fair_value": 13.41407, "relative_strength": 3.33995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.543717, "energy": 38.17539, "activity_lines": [ 13.757333, 13.810182, 14.335198, 14.601083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.04, "volume": 144561312, "typical_volume": 119699323.0, "trend": 14.849763, "fair_value": 13.37994, "relative_strength": -4.046581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.960976, "energy": 27.990191, "activity_lines": [ 13.862667, 13.832364, 14.276831, 14.550155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }