{ "ticker": { "uuid": "804feee0-6d85-40c7-8864-ff41d7d25eda", "symbol": "RDN", "name": "Raiden Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.189, "architecture_energy": 36.106, "architecture_maturity": 81.26, "architecture_confidence": 84.0, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.82, "rotation_up": 23.59, "upward_expansion": 4.68, "deceleration": 58.46, "rotation_down": 42.26, "downward_expansion": 73.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003036, 0.003336, 0.003561 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.003883, "distance_from_trend": -0.227468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.017093, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.824489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.825102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149635, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.824489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.358251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.027287, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6591474, "relative_activity": 0.495797, "balance": 0.027287, "dry_up": 0.930589, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217949, "annualized_volatility": 0.608365, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003883, "fair_value_reference": 0.017093, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.289474, "directional_follow_through": 0.447368, "median_excess_return": -0.020033, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.133929, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.125062, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 5.0, "worst_return": -0.576923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.147834, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 5.6, "worst_return": -0.813559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 0.017215, "relative_strength": -33.036424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.390082, "energy": 58.990841, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003136, 0.003464, 0.003692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 26734838, "typical_volume": 13336602.3, "trend": 0.003983, "fair_value": 0.017157, "relative_strength": -34.102073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.662158, "energy": 41.332091, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003082, 0.003398, 0.003625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 6591474, "typical_volume": 13294701.4, "trend": 0.003883, "fair_value": 0.017093, "relative_strength": -35.825102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.188556, "energy": 36.106425, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003036, 0.003336, 0.003561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }