{ "ticker": { "uuid": "805f59fa-25b8-4241-9de5-195c4faf4f7b", "symbol": "PTL", "name": "Prestal Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.855, "architecture_energy": 56.143, "architecture_maturity": 62.497, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 25.2, "upward_expansion": 9.47, "deceleration": 57.02, "rotation_down": 57.83, "downward_expansion": 85.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023067, 0.023545, 0.026571, 0.028809 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.023, "trend_reference": 0.032067, "distance_from_trend": -0.282744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.078435, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.706764, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.630506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.410256, "excess_performance": -0.473962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.282744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1875, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.706764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.446305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.410256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.384211, "dry_up": 0.98957, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143813, "annualized_volatility": 0.707025, "from_high_reference": -0.634921, "from_low_reference": 0.095238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.032067, "fair_value_reference": 0.078435, "structural_low": 0.021, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.007248, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010726, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.185185, "worst_return": -0.203125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.024791, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.04363, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.242053, "worst_return": -0.340426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.197674, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.128528, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.257573, "worst_return": -0.365385, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 0.024, "volume": 154577, "typical_volume": 221678.05, "trend": 0.0351, "fair_value": 0.080647, "relative_strength": -43.532913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.395672, "energy": 81.910722, "activity_lines": [ 0.023867, 0.026455, 0.029357, 0.03163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.023, "volume": 494940, "typical_volume": 221751.45, "trend": 0.034333, "fair_value": 0.080123, "relative_strength": -44.949264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.796937, "energy": 83.927146, "activity_lines": [ 0.0234, 0.025436, 0.028552, 0.030849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 310921, "typical_volume": 237292.7, "trend": 0.033567, "fair_value": 0.07957, "relative_strength": -43.817729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.133988, "energy": 79.302795, "activity_lines": [ 0.023067, 0.0246, 0.027829, 0.030118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.023, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 211836.25, "trend": 0.032733, "fair_value": 0.079037, "relative_strength": -43.983516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.882969, "energy": 59.923947, "activity_lines": [ 0.023067, 0.023982, 0.027181, 0.029437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.023, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 203588.75, "trend": 0.032067, "fair_value": 0.078435, "relative_strength": -44.630506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.854764, "energy": 56.143056, "activity_lines": [ 0.023067, 0.023545, 0.026571, 0.028809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }