{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80615b69-2470-46bd-9662-7b59f53e52d1", "symbol": "603188", "name": "Jiangsu Yabang Dyestuff Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.095, "architecture_energy": 55.604, "architecture_maturity": 41.738, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 22.13, "upward_expansion": 9.36, "deceleration": 57.18, "rotation_down": 58.02, "downward_expansion": 82.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.888667, 3.947455, 4.254429, 4.481161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.04, "trend_reference": 4.724333, "distance_from_trend": -0.144853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.854615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.941662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233397, "excess_performance": -0.190193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050385, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229332, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43645750, "relative_activity": 0.786692, "balance": 0.229332, "dry_up": 1.064348, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085491, "annualized_volatility": 0.349816, "from_high_reference": -0.356688, "from_low_reference": 0.195266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.724333, "fair_value_reference": 3.854615, "structural_low": 3.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.016548, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.37037, "median_excess_return": 0.029114, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.389121, "worst_return": -0.213287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018248, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.046199, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.648305, "worst_return": -0.130612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.07302, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.059744, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.533898, "worst_return": -0.138686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.007833, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025478, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.321168, "worst_return": -0.200743, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.127737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146067, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006098, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.226629, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.200946, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", 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4.656538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.64, "volume": 69693729, "typical_volume": 58123401.0, "trend": 4.765667, "fair_value": 3.849103, "relative_strength": -18.629952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.884098, "energy": 80.088807, "activity_lines": [ 3.832, 4.006182, 4.367333, 4.581699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.91, "volume": 54375627, "typical_volume": 56830802.35, "trend": 4.742667, "fair_value": 3.85141, "relative_strength": -12.686176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.207978, "energy": 70.352518, "activity_lines": [ 3.834667, 3.955455, 4.301238, 4.526495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.04, "volume": 43645750, "typical_volume": 55480072.55, "trend": 4.724333, "fair_value": 3.854615, "relative_strength": -11.941662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.094778, "energy": 55.604369, "activity_lines": [ 3.888667, 3.947455, 4.254429, 4.481161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }