{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8065e9dc-305e-494a-a5ab-cf6f01ea1fe8", "symbol": "2634", "name": "Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.523, "architecture_energy": 77.321, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.557, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 79.15, "upward_expansion": 88.01, "deceleration": 50.27, "rotation_down": 9.27, "downward_expansion": 14.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.166667, 61.701832, 56.010732, 53.925904 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 70.599998, "trend_reference": 52.404593, "distance_from_trend": 0.34721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.678008, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.450347, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.399496, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.38669, "excess_performance": -0.054682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.34721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052699, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.450347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.50372, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053995, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.324491, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.38669, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.750475, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166173391, "relative_activity": 1.766917, "balance": 3.750475, "dry_up": 2.639816, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083889, "annualized_volatility": 0.440182, "from_high_reference": -0.062417, "from_low_reference": 0.664028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.404593, "fair_value_reference": 48.678008, "structural_low": 42.427157, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.001692, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.001965, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.392557, "worst_return": -0.130856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011364, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.031648, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.466146, "worst_return": -0.197531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051084, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.108019, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.655671, "worst_return": -0.239095, "sufficient": true }, 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51.022518, "fair_value": 48.411651, "relative_strength": -9.425476, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.607129, "energy": 91.427163, "activity_lines": [ 60.84973, 55.815156, 52.002427, 51.347959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.900002, "volume": 224892071, "typical_volume": 82607479.85, "trend": 51.421655, "fair_value": 48.484458, "relative_strength": -12.808345, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.838004, "energy": 82.619811, "activity_lines": [ 61.99338, 57.549291, 53.126173, 52.049732 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.700001, "volume": 109481717, "typical_volume": 87047824.2, "trend": 51.79768, "fair_value": 48.559557, "relative_strength": -14.835985, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.124116, "energy": 75.670813, "activity_lines": [ 62.180001, 58.955799, 54.174791, 52.712851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 70.599998, "volume": 166173391, "typical_volume": 94047076.7, "trend": 52.404593, "fair_value": 48.678008, "relative_strength": -5.399496, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.523058, "energy": 77.320526, "activity_lines": [ 65.166667, 61.701832, 56.010732, 53.925904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }