{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8066fd24-0b81-44cd-97c0-a78ff8506ede", "symbol": "1325", "name": "Universal Incorporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.833, "architecture_energy": 18.726, "architecture_maturity": 31.229, "architecture_confidence": 63.298, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.47, "rotation_up": 39.23, "upward_expansion": 25.56, "deceleration": 40.9, "rotation_down": 21.05, "downward_expansion": 48.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.626667, 26.130909, 26.170476, 26.490968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.200001, "trend_reference": 27.155, "distance_from_trend": -0.035168, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.861532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.5111, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126667, "excess_performance": -0.568039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059296, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.660257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1618332, "relative_activity": 0.791207, "balance": 1.660257, "dry_up": 1.839556, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07384, "annualized_volatility": 0.267416, "from_high_reference": -0.278237, "from_low_reference": 0.10084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.155, "fair_value_reference": 28.861532, "structural_low": 23.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.007696, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.025995, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.101106, "worst_return": -0.303769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.10998, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.031966, "worst_return": -0.438633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.118488, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.200739, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.205882, "worst_return": -0.274644, 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}, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052102, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022508, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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"close": 26.1, "volume": 2820376, "typical_volume": 1997217.55, "trend": 27.403333, "fair_value": 28.799412, "relative_strength": -33.553159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.756282, "energy": 16.399185, "activity_lines": [ 26.056667, 25.814546, 26.089762, 26.562366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.4, "volume": 2185255, "typical_volume": 2047953.9, "trend": 27.303333, "fair_value": 28.835875, "relative_strength": -31.101868, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.487318, "energy": 14.309286, "activity_lines": [ 26.61, 26.085455, 26.187619, 26.562151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.200001, "volume": 1618332, "typical_volume": 2045396.95, "trend": 27.155, "fair_value": 28.861532, "relative_strength": -35.5111, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.832569, "energy": 18.726187, "activity_lines": [ 26.626667, 26.130909, 26.170476, 26.490968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }