{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80682613-a74a-4a6d-ba35-bb312c385777", "symbol": "00902", "name": "CTBC Battery & Energy Storage Technology ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.065, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.032, "architecture_energy": 81.737, "architecture_maturity": 15.437, "architecture_confidence": 85.294, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.69, "rotation_up": 8.56, "upward_expansion": 19.65, "deceleration": 37.49, "rotation_down": 78.87, "downward_expansion": 95.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.901333, 13.429455, 14.504857, 14.69185 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.35, "trend_reference": 14.718333, "distance_from_trend": -0.092968, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.838205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.777617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060521, "excess_performance": -0.439833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092968, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231754, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260734, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4448411, "relative_activity": 0.471952, "balance": 0.479273, "dry_up": 0.584357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069144, "annualized_volatility": 0.339863, "from_high_reference": -0.247887, "from_low_reference": 0.550523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.718333, "fair_value_reference": 10.838205, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035394, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016493, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.007856, "worst_return": -0.06833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008806, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.088556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138151, "worst_return": -0.155763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.036791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027703, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006376, "worst_return": -0.079958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030114, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197701, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.255858, "active": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 13.04, "volume": 11285803, "typical_volume": 11351441.95, "trend": 14.763, "fair_value": 10.834423, "relative_strength": -31.17836, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.895656, "energy": 50.572447, "activity_lines": [ 14.236667, 15.03, 15.419191, 15.19643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.28, "volume": 8146304, "typical_volume": 10550741.6, "trend": 14.730333, "fair_value": 10.834295, "relative_strength": -30.886979, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.419132, "energy": 78.05922, "activity_lines": [ 13.450667, 14.419636, 15.127857, 15.036237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.75, "volume": 4094297, "typical_volume": 9900011.75, "trend": 14.73, "fair_value": 10.834936, "relative_strength": -29.656987, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.971256, "energy": 79.059456, "activity_lines": [ 13.027333, 13.985273, 14.895048, 14.908473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.73, "volume": 5342576, "typical_volume": 9629617.8, "trend": 14.707667, "fair_value": 10.834551, "relative_strength": -28.618112, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.973923, "energy": 78.750577, "activity_lines": [ 12.798, 13.617455, 14.666286, 14.779441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.35, "volume": 4448411, "typical_volume": 9425567.8, "trend": 14.718333, "fair_value": 10.838205, "relative_strength": -26.777617, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.032355, "energy": 81.736831, "activity_lines": [ 12.901333, 13.429455, 14.504857, 14.69185 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }