{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80684d01-aedb-448a-8bf4-1b58b584a918", "symbol": "00893", "name": "Cathay Global Autonomous and Electric Vehicles ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.806, "architecture_energy": 23.654, "architecture_maturity": 68.493, "architecture_confidence": 72.924, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.49, "rotation_up": 19.48, "upward_expansion": 54.12, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 31.39, "downward_expansion": 20.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.707999, 44.426181, 44.294523, 42.351311 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 43.459999, "trend_reference": 39.738, "distance_from_trend": 0.093663, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.987756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.672326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.663472, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.253172, "excess_performance": -0.12614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.672326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.253172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.632759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3657445, "relative_activity": 0.650463, "balance": 0.632759, "dry_up": 0.949458, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050887, "annualized_volatility": 0.26969, "from_high_reference": -0.096466, "from_low_reference": 0.707662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.738, "fair_value_reference": 25.987756, "structural_low": 31.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016054, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.015329, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.182628, "worst_return": -0.106843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059984, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.370453, "worst_return": -0.083633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.190364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.439333, "worst_return": 0.087235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130501, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.223436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.439999, "volume": 4994882, "typical_volume": 5696280.95, "trend": 39.043, "fair_value": 25.665641, "relative_strength": -5.752378, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.326231, "energy": 36.275392, "activity_lines": [ 44.661333, 45.266727, 44.031761, 41.828086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.07, "volume": 8093525, "typical_volume": 5713153.4, "trend": 39.377, "fair_value": 25.826603, "relative_strength": -7.369582, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.522149, "energy": 23.945442, "activity_lines": [ 44.047333, 44.791818, 44.167142, 42.087892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.459999, "volume": 3657445, "typical_volume": 5622833.35, "trend": 39.738, "fair_value": 25.987756, "relative_strength": -8.663472, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.806484, "energy": 23.654472, "activity_lines": [ 43.707999, 44.426181, 44.294523, 42.351311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }