{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8075216a-b087-412f-9460-881d3d30311b", "symbol": "NTIC", "name": "Northern Technologies", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.274, "architecture_energy": 13.416, "architecture_maturity": 20.631, "architecture_confidence": 74.391, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.98, "rotation_up": 19.01, "upward_expansion": 11.69, "deceleration": 58.55, "rotation_down": 45.63, "downward_expansion": 68.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.175333, 8.217455, 8.150095, 8.212556 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.42, "trend_reference": 8.399967, "distance_from_trend": 0.002385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.734843, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.215638, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.297321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.073707, "excess_performance": -0.261161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.215638, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060051, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073707, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393207, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23899, "relative_activity": 0.409786, "balance": 0.393207, "dry_up": 0.739674, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042601, "annualized_volatility": 0.174596, "from_high_reference": -0.159587, "from_low_reference": 0.180469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.399967, "fair_value_reference": 10.734843, "structural_low": 7.77, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007634, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.03106, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.172252, "worst_return": -0.112639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00775, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063434, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.198631, "worst_return": -0.179917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098503, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.087376, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.341588, "worst_return": -0.476902, "sufficient": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.991471, "energy": 30.186511, "activity_lines": [ 8.382, 8.215455, 8.166905, 8.293598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.15, "volume": 66305, "typical_volume": 54919.05, "trend": 8.388941, "fair_value": 10.837986, "relative_strength": -13.568677, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.818981, "energy": 19.87917, "activity_lines": [ 8.344667, 8.222364, 8.156429, 8.279684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.09, "volume": 33411, "typical_volume": 55026.3, "trend": 8.397564, "fair_value": 10.81375, "relative_strength": -10.144863, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.340089, "energy": 19.810786, "activity_lines": [ 8.277333, 8.214727, 8.144762, 8.260398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.04, "volume": 64605, "typical_volume": 57313.7, "trend": 8.413511, "fair_value": 10.788825, "relative_strength": -8.944791, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.533249, "energy": 15.507104, "activity_lines": [ 8.190667, 8.195636, 8.13219, 8.237329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.02, "volume": 50638, "typical_volume": 58708.9, "trend": 8.410478, "fair_value": 10.759641, "relative_strength": -9.415982, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.163927, "energy": 28.112256, "activity_lines": [ 8.097333, 8.170364, 8.120524, 8.211941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.42, "volume": 23899, "typical_volume": 58320.65, "trend": 8.399967, "fair_value": 10.734843, "relative_strength": -9.297321, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.274052, "energy": 13.415871, "activity_lines": [ 8.175333, 8.217455, 8.150095, 8.212556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }