{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8076e72a-ce77-490f-ad36-6d071dd3d74c", "symbol": "002466", "name": "Tianqi Lithium Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.834, "architecture_energy": 82.418, "architecture_maturity": 16.356, "architecture_confidence": 86.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.23, "rotation_up": 8.63, "upward_expansion": 20.09, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 78.57, "downward_expansion": 95.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.278, 50.058181, 56.48119, 57.665699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.869999, "trend_reference": 58.339333, "distance_from_trend": -0.179456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.418463, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.563602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122456, "excess_performance": -0.129856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007823, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.59783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.446733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.221358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225071997, "relative_activity": 0.81335, "balance": 0.221358, "dry_up": 1.039118, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125789, "annualized_volatility": 0.577325, "from_high_reference": -0.419687, "from_low_reference": 0.273816 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.339333, "fair_value_reference": 44.418463, "structural_low": 40.439999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.024421, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.017598, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.351248, "worst_return": -0.186862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.044262, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.013916, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.436361, "worst_return": -0.363759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072984, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.717117, "worst_return": -0.408313, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -18.995056, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.972187, "energy": 47.581673, "activity_lines": [ 55.817333, 59.058363, 62.119809, 61.038796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.990002, "volume": 340023042, "typical_volume": 261897123.6, "trend": 59.309667, "fair_value": 44.803796, "relative_strength": -12.720392, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.203039, "energy": 64.78743, "activity_lines": [ 52.143333, 56.262364, 60.73819, 60.233978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.880001, "volume": 352212196, "typical_volume": 270224743.3, "trend": 59.009, "fair_value": 44.662472, "relative_strength": -18.853198, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.807995, "energy": 75.759398, "activity_lines": [ 48.466667, 53.429273, 59.106143, 59.238516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.349998, "volume": 232881478, "typical_volume": 273582128.5, "trend": 58.589667, "fair_value": 44.520146, "relative_strength": -14.754091, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.292343, "energy": 86.379719, "activity_lines": [ 46.5, 51.322182, 57.652714, 58.35729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.869999, "volume": 225071997, "typical_volume": 276722304.0, "trend": 58.339333, "fair_value": 44.418463, "relative_strength": -14.563602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.834055, "energy": 82.418033, "activity_lines": [ 46.278, 50.058181, 56.48119, 57.665699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }