{ "ticker": { "uuid": "807ba960-f422-401f-8512-3054462f27f4", "symbol": "HLMI", "name": "Hecla Mining Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.256, "architecture_energy": 41.667, "architecture_maturity": 51.698, "architecture_confidence": 83.413, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.46, "rotation_up": 23.22, "upward_expansion": 5.38, "deceleration": 58.4, "rotation_down": 48.69, "downward_expansion": 76.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.396667, 13.509273, 14.025711, 14.812145 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.435, "trend_reference": 16.341065, "distance_from_trend": -0.116643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.196523, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.005814, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258829, "excess_performance": -0.433075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.415679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.110555, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14854, "relative_activity": 3.091234, "balance": 1.110555, "dry_up": 1.517939, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099432, "annualized_volatility": 0.531647, "from_high_reference": -0.496979, "from_low_reference": 1.283484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.341065, "fair_value_reference": 10.196523, "structural_low": 12.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071546, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10462, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.066255, "worst_return": -0.076838, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079856, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008926, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 6.100387, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 6.09442, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.861413, "energy": 52.084774, "activity_lines": [ 13.537, 13.699474, 14.43799, 15.425891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.58, "volume": 6690, "typical_volume": 5313.0, "trend": 16.604027, "fair_value": 10.129818, "relative_strength": -19.578335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.123283, "energy": 43.126508, "activity_lines": [ 13.502667, 13.627273, 14.293105, 15.223379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.295, "volume": 3805, "typical_volume": 4775.2, "trend": 16.5001, "fair_value": 10.152372, "relative_strength": -27.629434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.693009, "energy": 54.731098, "activity_lines": [ 13.041333, 13.353091, 14.04618, 14.945377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.435, "volume": 14854, "typical_volume": 4805.2, "trend": 16.341065, "fair_value": 10.196523, "relative_strength": -18.005814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.255572, "energy": 41.666506, "activity_lines": [ 13.396667, 13.509273, 14.025711, 14.812145 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }