{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80821b1c-50c8-44cd-afcf-543438adda32", "symbol": "EMPB", "name": "EFFICIENT MARKET PORTFOLIO PLUS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.225, "architecture_energy": 61.947, "architecture_maturity": 61.41, "architecture_confidence": 81.172, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.71, "rotation_up": 63.47, "upward_expansion": 84.76, "deceleration": 65.8, "rotation_down": 23.89, "downward_expansion": 9.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.439847, 33.140756, 32.618796, 31.927643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.4398, "trend_reference": 30.9733, "distance_from_trend": 0.111919, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.563537, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.054489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.183498, "excess_performance": 0.057873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111919, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046299, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205726, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072487, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020545, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183498, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.785393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39521, "relative_activity": 1.41319, "balance": 1.785393, "dry_up": 1.457396, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02634, "annualized_volatility": 0.102325, "from_high_reference": -0.04387, "from_low_reference": 0.244212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.9733, "fair_value_reference": 28.563537, "structural_low": 28.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.003987, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000634, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.003987, "worst_return": -0.003987, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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31.914526, 31.237101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.48, "volume": 44345, "typical_volume": 27838.85, "trend": 30.490176, "fair_value": 28.387475, "relative_strength": -0.018823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.377575, "energy": 60.023319, "activity_lines": [ 32.752493, 32.708433, 32.041186, 31.373161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.99, "volume": 30799, "typical_volume": 27563.8, "trend": 30.628603, "fair_value": 28.441623, "relative_strength": 2.184874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.636109, "energy": 59.771234, "activity_lines": [ 32.841167, 32.779116, 32.202798, 31.53444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.05, "volume": 48364, "typical_volume": 28461.45, "trend": 30.76656, "fair_value": 28.495208, "relative_strength": 1.334506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.299371, "energy": 57.365369, "activity_lines": [ 32.924507, 32.841771, 32.353209, 31.690659 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.4398, "volume": 39521, "typical_volume": 27965.8, "trend": 30.9733, "fair_value": 28.563537, "relative_strength": 2.054489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.225295, "energy": 61.947382, "activity_lines": [ 33.439847, 33.140756, 32.618796, 31.927643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }