{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8082d4d0-2147-4416-925f-0075be0eaf2c", "symbol": "MOMO", "name": "Hello Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.723, "architecture_energy": 14.037, "architecture_maturity": 14.785, "architecture_confidence": 62.697, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.44, "rotation_up": 35.12, "upward_expansion": 27.43, "deceleration": 32.66, "rotation_down": 24.63, "downward_expansion": 47.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.931333, 5.872455, 5.88456, 5.90687 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.86, "trend_reference": 5.9978, "distance_from_trend": -0.022975, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.173962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050853, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.091907, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064314, "excess_performance": -0.251767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022975, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039562, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064314, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.902898, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2123794, "relative_activity": 0.652125, "balance": 0.902898, "dry_up": 0.726761, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059025, "annualized_volatility": 0.24354, "from_high_reference": -0.285794, "from_low_reference": 0.101504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.9978, "fair_value_reference": 6.173962, "structural_low": 5.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01501, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032008, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.56993, "worst_return": -0.273835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053312, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.021184, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.935185, "worst_return": -0.278853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.078703, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.012422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.689398, "worst_return": -0.327233, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046233, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174123, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01016, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003401, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.794264, "volume": 6075276, "typical_volume": 5909214.2, "trend": 7.403065, "fair_value": 7.230111, "relative_strength": 7.971839, "stage": 2, "regime": 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5.929464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.88, "volume": 2097070, "typical_volume": 3436538.85, "trend": 6.028593, "fair_value": 6.207899, "relative_strength": -16.924565, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.498036, "energy": 19.11875, "activity_lines": [ 5.929333, 5.828818, 5.875643, 5.919178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.99, "volume": 2591089, "typical_volume": 3419493.05, "trend": 6.012181, "fair_value": 6.189421, "relative_strength": -15.01645, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.081281, "energy": 17.57714, "activity_lines": [ 5.965, 5.863273, 5.886938, 5.916688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.86, "volume": 2123794, "typical_volume": 3256727.85, "trend": 5.9978, "fair_value": 6.173962, "relative_strength": -20.091907, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.722516, "energy": 14.036512, "activity_lines": [ 5.931333, 5.872455, 5.88456, 5.90687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }