{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8084a11f-dbf9-4a02-aa8e-fa0726ed3f22", "symbol": "V1OD34", "name": "Vodafone Group Public Limited Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.853, "architecture_energy": 49.309, "architecture_maturity": 11.903, "architecture_confidence": 77.075, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.02, "rotation_up": 68.69, "upward_expansion": 54.4, "deceleration": 28.66, "rotation_down": 19.09, "downward_expansion": 17.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.045334, 38.793273, 38.24172, 38.234636 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.080002, "trend_reference": 38.256949, "distance_from_trend": 0.073792, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.319619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.503681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.146965, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046091, "excess_performance": 0.10314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073792, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037321, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.503681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.11147, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113831, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884911, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 859, "relative_activity": 0.482016, "balance": 0.884911, "dry_up": 0.646008, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056009, "annualized_volatility": 0.255412, "from_high_reference": -0.021672, "from_low_reference": 0.410406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.256949, "fair_value_reference": 27.319619, "structural_low": 33.240002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.012825, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.034454, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": -0.196356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.067675, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.07601, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.21279, "worst_return": -0.197646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040965, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054073, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.361435, "worst_return": -0.260234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 1789.6, "trend": 37.730282, "fair_value": 26.784661, "relative_strength": -1.223538, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.64166, "energy": 49.132771, "activity_lines": [ 36.466666, 36.902219, 37.388833, 37.683182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.099998, "volume": 2535, "typical_volume": 1873.2, "trend": 37.877616, "fair_value": 26.919988, "relative_strength": 7.805139, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.20208, "energy": 11.519998, "activity_lines": [ 37.540665, 37.435223, 37.613317, 37.836067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.68, "volume": 645, "typical_volume": 1763.5, "trend": 37.960949, "fair_value": 27.044016, "relative_strength": 3.901858, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.067493, "energy": 5.132344, "activity_lines": [ 38.086666, 37.68933, 37.698848, 37.887834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.360001, "volume": 566, "typical_volume": 1746.8, "trend": 38.103616, "fair_value": 27.179349, "relative_strength": 5.979779, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.693218, "energy": 28.950572, "activity_lines": [ 39.087333, 38.208295, 37.941522, 38.042611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.080002, "volume": 859, "typical_volume": 1782.1, "trend": 38.256949, "fair_value": 27.319619, "relative_strength": 11.146965, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.852973, "energy": 49.309342, "activity_lines": [ 40.045334, 38.793273, 38.24172, 38.234636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }