{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8086443a-e9de-477a-b8a2-b0092b551133", "symbol": "603917", "name": "Ningbo Heli Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.047, "architecture_energy": 51.182, "architecture_maturity": 43.899, "architecture_confidence": 85.513, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.48, "rotation_up": 17.78, "upward_expansion": 14.02, "deceleration": 36.14, "rotation_down": 60.6, "downward_expansion": 80.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.522, 11.828623, 12.069655, 12.437161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.77, "trend_reference": 13.059508, "distance_from_trend": -0.098741, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.785945, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.869277, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.197135, "excess_performance": -0.153931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098741, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037167, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.197135, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.093045, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16526423, "relative_activity": 0.731327, "balance": 1.093045, "dry_up": 0.918884, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095643, "annualized_volatility": 0.360773, "from_high_reference": -0.302725, "from_low_reference": 0.148293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.059508, "fair_value_reference": 13.785945, "structural_low": 10.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.053115, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.052066, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.565824, "worst_return": -0.146396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.070882, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.018639, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.149185, "worst_return": -0.29934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.18307, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.15798, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.440036, "worst_return": -0.355901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.933314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.9, "volume": 20421700, "typical_volume": 22969769.15, "trend": 13.408175, "fair_value": 13.974718, "relative_strength": -9.167368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.497735, "energy": 21.707076, "activity_lines": [ 12.460667, 12.308398, 12.431492, 12.831582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.59, "volume": 23627100, "typical_volume": 22430676.5, "trend": 13.265175, "fair_value": 13.899808, "relative_strength": -19.72939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.972221, "energy": 36.168916, "activity_lines": [ 11.863333, 12.001641, 12.233515, 12.649765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.36, "volume": 22484000, "typical_volume": 22635826.7, "trend": 13.160175, "fair_value": 13.836616, "relative_strength": -13.888813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.359229, "energy": 43.965863, "activity_lines": [ 11.6, 11.863115, 12.125871, 12.52685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.77, "volume": 16526423, "typical_volume": 22597857.0, "trend": 13.059508, "fair_value": 13.785945, "relative_strength": -12.869277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.047257, "energy": 51.181798, "activity_lines": [ 11.522, 11.828623, 12.069655, 12.437161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }