{ "ticker": { "uuid": "808cc45a-4834-490e-b7ad-c9bc293ed633", "symbol": "WBTC", "name": "WisdomTree Physical Bitcoin", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.115, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.325, "architecture_energy": 32.597, "architecture_maturity": 21.051, "architecture_confidence": 65.051, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.25, "rotation_up": 24.7, "upward_expansion": 16.37, "deceleration": 64.35, "rotation_down": 34.48, "downward_expansion": 61.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.2822, 13.182782, 13.773852, 14.053043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.434, "trend_reference": 14.578933, "distance_from_trend": -0.078533, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.886771, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.855372, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -76.095751, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.044863, "excess_performance": -0.098175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078533, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.855372, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.760958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111861, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.553842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52837, "relative_activity": 0.743391, "balance": 0.553842, "dry_up": 1.141643, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060169, "annualized_volatility": 0.375968, "from_high_reference": -0.95501, "from_low_reference": 0.799598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.578933, "fair_value_reference": 92.886771, "structural_low": 12.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02471, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.102229, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161418, "worst_return": -0.975, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.423591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.412236, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127817, "worst_return": -0.975, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.95004, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.948011, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.95004, "worst_return": -0.95004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.830007, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11052, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034503, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.465, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"typical_volume": 72300.25, "trend": 14.572767, "fair_value": 92.81313, "relative_strength": -79.647583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.899453, "energy": 40.629317, "activity_lines": [ 13.245933, 13.250927, 13.980005, 14.240882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.984, "volume": 137149, "typical_volume": 74544.9, "trend": 14.756733, "fair_value": 92.848508, "relative_strength": -78.69169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.262539, "energy": 36.054383, "activity_lines": [ 13.202133, 13.149982, 13.850895, 14.138381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.434, "volume": 52837, "typical_volume": 71075.65, "trend": 14.578933, "fair_value": 92.886771, "relative_strength": -76.095751, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.324988, "energy": 32.596936, "activity_lines": [ 13.2822, 13.182782, 13.773852, 14.053043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }