{ "ticker": { "uuid": "808d9039-b6a5-4774-b019-6e4b8e391411", "symbol": "1810", "name": "Seera Holding Group", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.618, "architecture_energy": 51.868, "architecture_maturity": 61.769, "architecture_confidence": 87.097, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.9, "rotation_up": 18.62, "upward_expansion": 6.82, "deceleration": 49.43, "rotation_down": 64.17, "downward_expansion": 82.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.549334, 20.824909, 21.510668, 21.881361 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.01, "trend_reference": 22.650342, "distance_from_trend": -0.11657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.23904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.923704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.221401, "excess_performance": -0.189571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061608, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614113, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2638365, "relative_activity": 1.006958, "balance": 0.614113, "dry_up": 1.090386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053249, "annualized_volatility": 0.332516, "from_high_reference": -0.366772, "from_low_reference": 0.050394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.650342, "fair_value_reference": 25.23904, "structural_low": 19.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.008018, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.004992, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.249993, "worst_return": -0.213453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052966, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029564, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.416455, "worst_return": -0.107393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094148, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011669, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.112763, "worst_return": -0.122957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-66.09424, "energy": 64.687333, "activity_lines": [ 21.114667, 21.429865, 22.027673, 22.50188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.74, "volume": 2451265, "typical_volume": 2606182.3, "trend": 23.230342, "fair_value": 25.384745, "relative_strength": -12.036673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.484691, "energy": 43.24328, "activity_lines": [ 21.302667, 21.420145, 21.988719, 22.396739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.75, "volume": 2943674, "typical_volume": 2598040.55, "trend": 23.044009, "fair_value": 25.343079, "relative_strength": -16.308157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.811294, "energy": 45.009253, "activity_lines": [ 21.129333, 21.247154, 21.86148, 22.236717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.360001, "volume": 3394531, "typical_volume": 2629179.75, "trend": 22.834009, "fair_value": 25.295066, "relative_strength": -15.920867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.636144, "energy": 46.633409, "activity_lines": [ 20.872, 21.04893, 21.70305, 22.063555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.01, "volume": 2638365, "typical_volume": 2620134.5, "trend": 22.650342, "fair_value": 25.23904, "relative_strength": -18.923704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.618313, "energy": 51.867828, "activity_lines": [ 20.549334, 20.824909, 21.510668, 21.881361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }