{ "ticker": { "uuid": "808e3a35-1ddb-42b3-a74c-66a904231991", "symbol": "MCHI", "name": "ISHARES MSCI CHINA ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.799, "architecture_energy": 17.806, "architecture_maturity": 99.119, "architecture_confidence": 45.275, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.58, "rotation_up": 41.18, "upward_expansion": 22.66, "deceleration": 41.26, "rotation_down": 16.77, "downward_expansion": 54.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.004667, 53.850504, 54.329153, 55.069764 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.57, "trend_reference": 56.486188, "distance_from_trend": 0.001484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.023482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.06896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076665, "excess_performance": -0.264118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001484, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019046, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076665, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.819844, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11156597, "relative_activity": 0.758712, "balance": 0.819844, "dry_up": 0.86217, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039322, "annualized_volatility": 0.185075, "from_high_reference": -0.14438, "from_low_reference": 0.134122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.486188, "fair_value_reference": 49.023482, "structural_low": 49.88, 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"activity_lines": [ 52.248667, 52.808538, 54.253868, 55.388244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.33, "volume": 12239803, "typical_volume": 15941665.25, "trend": 56.862079, "fair_value": 48.860068, "relative_strength": -17.089254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.102202, "energy": 42.018922, "activity_lines": [ 52.676, 52.777939, 54.085564, 55.144154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.8, "volume": 15039470, "typical_volume": 15387628.7, "trend": 56.660969, "fair_value": 48.933042, "relative_strength": -13.379427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.251102, "energy": 18.884178, "activity_lines": [ 53.889333, 53.249885, 54.166876, 55.075633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.57, "volume": 11156597, "typical_volume": 14704652.4, "trend": 56.486188, "fair_value": 49.023482, "relative_strength": -16.06896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.798639, "energy": 17.806447, "activity_lines": [ 55.004667, 53.850504, 54.329153, 55.069764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }