{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8099df4f-c12b-4294-977b-c848c14e9378", "symbol": "NEOLA", "name": "Neola Medical AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.557, "architecture_energy": 88.311, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.09, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.93, "rotation_up": 8.08, "upward_expansion": 20.9, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 85.02, "downward_expansion": 98.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.631667, 0.729455, 0.84843, 0.865027 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.883138, "distance_from_trend": -0.320604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.851501, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.675939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.92903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.311494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.320604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.675939, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.57929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.364945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347084, "relative_activity": 2.052211, "balance": 0.364945, "dry_up": 2.863646, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194537, "annualized_volatility": 1.157958, "from_high_reference": -0.76, "from_low_reference": 0.081081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.883138, "fair_value_reference": 1.851501, "structural_low": 0.555, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.023792, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.039355, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.939058, "worst_return": -0.329439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.038314, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.037122, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.370558, "worst_return": -0.44507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026549, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.107025, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.517787, "worst_return": -0.636866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094488, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062241, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 1.879385, "relative_strength": -41.566121, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.06469, "energy": 14.702343, "activity_lines": [ 0.907, 0.942062, 0.960461, 0.942751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.66, "volume": 917865, "typical_volume": 130611.7, "trend": 0.930638, "fair_value": 1.87227, "relative_strength": -55.454408, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.470134, "energy": 36.977095, "activity_lines": [ 0.825333, 0.882678, 0.934589, 0.924323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.645, "volume": 262890, "typical_volume": 140071.35, "trend": 0.914971, "fair_value": 1.865411, "relative_strength": -55.916083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.237452, "energy": 70.917188, "activity_lines": [ 0.750667, 0.829839, 0.908269, 0.905894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.58, "volume": 409439, "typical_volume": 157059.55, "trend": 0.898471, "fair_value": 1.85852, "relative_strength": -59.700331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.339555, "energy": 86.381616, "activity_lines": [ 0.676667, 0.773091, 0.876878, 0.884283 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 347084, "typical_volume": 169126.85, "trend": 0.883138, "fair_value": 1.851501, "relative_strength": -57.92903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.55707, "energy": 88.310607, "activity_lines": [ 0.631667, 0.729455, 0.84843, 0.865027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }