{ "ticker": { "uuid": "809b97c5-c7f7-4c83-b924-7cb0092b4bcc", "symbol": "PPT", "name": "Perpetual Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.65, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.895, "architecture_energy": 72.552, "architecture_maturity": 10.115, "architecture_confidence": 71.969, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.56, "rotation_up": 72.56, "upward_expansion": 89.71, "deceleration": 46.15, "rotation_down": 9.66, "downward_expansion": 16.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.926666, 18.367091, 17.489857, 17.17926 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.719999, "trend_reference": 16.995991, "distance_from_trend": 0.101436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.624927, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005105, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.236891, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142568, "excess_performance": 0.078863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101436, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01119, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005105, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128851, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002369, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078874, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142568, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.757338, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1115969, "relative_activity": 1.152725, "balance": 0.757338, "dry_up": 1.356701, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059665, "annualized_volatility": 0.358076, "from_high_reference": -0.10781, "from_low_reference": 0.239735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.995991, "fair_value_reference": 18.624927, "structural_low": 15.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.071288, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.04175, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.018664, "worst_return": -0.121729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.072878, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065002, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": -0.017891, "worst_return": -0.19745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035821, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.063607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01496, "worst_return": -0.123731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1013970.75, "trend": 16.95971, "fair_value": 18.653892, "relative_strength": 6.572366, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.694715, "energy": 74.108311, "activity_lines": [ 18.828667, 17.795273, 17.092905, 16.938216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.959999, "volume": 2105711, "typical_volume": 1044329.7, "trend": 16.984103, "fair_value": 18.640741, "relative_strength": 4.530546, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.032334, "energy": 81.345594, "activity_lines": [ 19.043333, 18.127454, 17.309286, 17.067267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.719999, "volume": 1115969, "typical_volume": 968113.4, "trend": 16.995991, "fair_value": 18.624927, "relative_strength": 0.236891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.895443, "energy": 72.551648, "activity_lines": [ 18.926666, 18.367091, 17.489857, 17.17926 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }