{ "ticker": { "uuid": "809fad38-4919-41a8-9ec2-0310c5402f19", "symbol": "MINF", "name": "Middlefield Global Infrastructure Dividend ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.814, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.085, "architecture_energy": 43.923, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.691, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.02, "rotation_up": 42.1, "upward_expansion": 69.01, "deceleration": 85.44, "rotation_down": 27.73, "downward_expansion": 19.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.667634, 11.683387, 11.608873, 11.446114 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.54, "trend_reference": 11.192117, "distance_from_trend": 0.031083, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.354606, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.745676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08163, "excess_performance": -0.038791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031083, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233617, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.136364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300, "relative_activity": 0.674157, "balance": 1.136364, "dry_up": 0.674157, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013178, "annualized_volatility": 0.088147, "from_high_reference": -0.025928, "from_low_reference": 0.214829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.192117, "fair_value_reference": 9.354606, "structural_low": 10.551527, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.003737, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.004854, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.058046, "worst_return": -0.058755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016723, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.027048, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.097048, "worst_return": -0.100097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013602, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054469, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.142266, "worst_return": -0.131228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 9.311647, "relative_strength": 1.034699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.328803, "energy": 65.885513, "activity_lines": [ 11.746718, 11.718711, 11.572229, 11.383716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.66, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 615.0, "trend": 11.143364, "fair_value": 9.333206, "relative_strength": 0.257778, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.839259, "energy": 59.586895, "activity_lines": [ 11.724997, 11.713168, 11.598645, 11.420525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.54, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 445.0, "trend": 11.192117, "fair_value": 9.354606, "relative_strength": -3.745676, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.084507, "energy": 43.923034, "activity_lines": [ 11.667634, 11.683387, 11.608873, 11.446114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }