{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80a4066b-651e-409b-b2a2-44309a6d53de", "symbol": "003015", "name": "Jiangsu Rijiu Optoelectronics Jointstock Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.535, "architecture_energy": 75.105, "architecture_maturity": 54.716, "architecture_confidence": 92.71, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 16.15, "upward_expansion": 16.98, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 70.46, "downward_expansion": 92.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.909333, 11.337818, 12.289945, 13.14175 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.59, "trend_reference": 14.202528, "distance_from_trend": -0.183948, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.110045, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.896674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26218, "excess_performance": -0.26958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282868, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022724, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40196669, "relative_activity": 1.285014, "balance": 0.630171, "dry_up": 1.111305, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092416, "annualized_volatility": 0.389894, "from_high_reference": -0.438707, "from_low_reference": 0.206035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.202528, "fair_value_reference": 13.110045, "structural_low": 9.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.049013, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.033377, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.138125, "worst_return": -0.128185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.070549, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000872, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.285564, "worst_return": -0.11394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.217356, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.250594, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.542677, "worst_return": -0.212471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.871865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.16, "volume": 29834204, "typical_volume": 30753849.9, "trend": 14.49768, "fair_value": 13.084599, "relative_strength": -34.933113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.552284, "energy": 91.186415, "activity_lines": [ 11.09, 11.688727, 12.757048, 13.580888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.43, "volume": 39378507, "typical_volume": 30770255.25, "trend": 14.328963, "fair_value": 13.091875, "relative_strength": -31.443076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.284984, "energy": 89.11576, "activity_lines": [ 10.734667, 11.374545, 12.452991, 13.318457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.59, "volume": 40196669, "typical_volume": 31281113.65, "trend": 14.202528, "fair_value": 13.110045, "relative_strength": -26.896674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.534649, "energy": 75.104767, "activity_lines": [ 10.909333, 11.337818, 12.289945, 13.14175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }