{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80a43607-f2a3-40ea-9ed1-5447bcc8fc76", "symbol": "SF3", "name": "STS Group AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.591, "architecture_energy": 59.643, "architecture_maturity": 8.732, "architecture_confidence": 85.591, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.82, "rotation_up": 11.44, "upward_expansion": 12.36, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 66.15, "downward_expansion": 85.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.891333, 2.934909, 3.021476, 3.035161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.96, "trend_reference": 3.064667, "distance_from_trend": -0.034153, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.110802, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.279946, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.733009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045161, "excess_performance": -0.109801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032312, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.279946, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035149, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045161, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.129988, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6357, "relative_activity": 1.455074, "balance": 1.129988, "dry_up": 0.856232, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051715, "annualized_volatility": 0.198773, "from_high_reference": -0.561481, "from_low_reference": 0.096296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.064667, "fair_value_reference": 4.110802, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.008484, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.034689, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.266515, "worst_return": -0.209225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.072567, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.149256, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.246753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.154115, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.215321, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.435185, "worst_return": -0.301414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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3.073269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.82, "volume": 2322, "typical_volume": 3782.55, "trend": 3.091333, "fair_value": 4.141497, "relative_strength": -19.182668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.223527, "energy": 77.129674, "activity_lines": [ 2.857333, 2.973273, 3.043952, 3.055032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.9, "volume": 5681, "typical_volume": 4066.1, "trend": 3.076667, "fair_value": 4.126114, "relative_strength": -18.343282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.791139, "energy": 72.571484, "activity_lines": [ 2.86, 2.945636, 3.029667, 3.042688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.96, "volume": 6357, "typical_volume": 4368.85, "trend": 3.064667, "fair_value": 4.110802, "relative_strength": -18.733009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.590565, "energy": 59.642977, "activity_lines": [ 2.891333, 2.934909, 3.021476, 3.035161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }