{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80a4eee4-6e13-4324-a1fe-45779f5f6b38", "symbol": "VEL", "name": "Velocity Composites plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.662, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.104, "architecture_energy": 8.255, "architecture_maturity": 30.394, "architecture_confidence": 83.145, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.93, "rotation_up": 16.46, "upward_expansion": 21.41, "deceleration": 48.23, "rotation_down": 31.46, "downward_expansion": 45.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.14, 0.139636, 0.139607, 0.141194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.14, "trend_reference": 0.147083, "distance_from_trend": -0.048159, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.273446, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.488015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.075428, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.251235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042634, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.488015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230754, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163849, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.113549, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13383, "relative_activity": 0.05604, "balance": 1.113549, "dry_up": 0.411616, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151456, "annualized_volatility": 0.485805, "from_high_reference": -0.44, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.147083, "fair_value_reference": 0.273446, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.050767, "positive_rate": 0.0625, "directional_follow_through": 0.0625, "median_excess_return": -0.070091, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.093023, "worst_return": -0.173077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.157895, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.163191, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.59375, "worst_return": -0.346154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.240007, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.184211, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.412698, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.513646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.596154, "worst_return": -0.412987, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174603, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", 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0.141409, 0.139321, 0.142866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.14, "volume": 140058, "typical_volume": 253600.15, "trend": 0.14875, "fair_value": 0.277292, "relative_strength": -24.325892, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.53451, "energy": 19.239378, "activity_lines": [ 0.138, 0.141045, 0.139345, 0.142269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.14, "volume": 176902, "typical_volume": 254422.8, "trend": 0.147917, "fair_value": 0.275272, "relative_strength": -23.979651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.825765, "energy": 12.927194, "activity_lines": [ 0.139333, 0.140409, 0.13944, 0.141704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.14, "volume": 13383, "typical_volume": 238813.0, "trend": 0.147083, "fair_value": 0.273446, "relative_strength": -23.075428, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.104238, "energy": 8.255448, "activity_lines": [ 0.14, 0.139636, 0.139607, 0.141194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }