{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80a6cf1f-a1c6-45d3-89e6-aa90c1e3a3d3", "symbol": "LITE", "name": "Lumentum Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.814, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.576, "architecture_energy": 11.485, "architecture_maturity": 40.853, "architecture_confidence": 92.729, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.23, "rotation_up": 28.88, "upward_expansion": 42.07, "deceleration": 77.62, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 33.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 790.882, 791.621455, 829.809667, 809.935376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 890.17, "trend_reference": 744.578, "distance_from_trend": 0.195536, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.058269, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.101065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 52.025821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.612656, "excess_performance": 0.425202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.195536, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.279095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.101065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.849822, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.520258, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.754528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.612656, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.968621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24222126, "relative_activity": 0.900885, "balance": 0.968621, "dry_up": 0.849014, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193092, "annualized_volatility": 0.718253, "from_high_reference": -0.180081, "from_low_reference": 7.005126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 744.578, "fair_value_reference": 217.058269, "structural_low": 528.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046311, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.056802, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.003269, "worst_return": -0.137859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.091648, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.044852, "worst_return": -0.138443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.070297, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.056867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141018, "worst_return": -0.000424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.55831, "energy": 15.440625, "activity_lines": [ 743.497333, 776.085818, 824.686524, 799.383742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 890.17, "volume": 24222126, "typical_volume": 26887030.6, "trend": 744.578, "fair_value": 217.058269, "relative_strength": 52.025821, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.576175, "energy": 11.485341, "activity_lines": [ 790.882, 791.621455, 829.809667, 809.935376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }