{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80a930ad-73d6-4579-8e80-1498af31dba1", "symbol": "MTF-F24", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) S&P Aerospace & Defense", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.632, "architecture_energy": 67.206, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.795, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 53.14, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.72, 137.981818, 2892.161905, 5573.094624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 141.7, "trend_reference": 8800.15, "distance_from_trend": -0.983898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9747.266026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.80575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989687, "excess_performance": -1.018587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983898, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985463, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.247088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.745834, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.581278, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4278, "relative_activity": 0.540329, "balance": 0.581278, "dry_up": 1.215424, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.210141, "annualized_volatility": 6.294806, "from_high_reference": -0.990834, "from_low_reference": 0.113119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8800.15, "fair_value_reference": 9747.266026, "structural_low": 127.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.024681, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.002395, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.176015, "worst_return": -0.071832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.097784, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.029274, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.293285, "worst_return": -0.066262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.111752, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.137617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.492422, "worst_return": 0.025043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9840.930128, "relative_strength": -98.917932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.199198, "energy": 68.240534, "activity_lines": [ 137.266667, 366.652727, 4203.509048, 6779.457849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.7, "volume": 25060, "typical_volume": 7848.9, "trend": 9274.426667, "fair_value": 9794.562821, "relative_strength": -98.890971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.162186, "energy": 68.073738, "activity_lines": [ 136.28, 137.178182, 3514.251429, 6162.302796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 141.7, "volume": 4278, "typical_volume": 7917.4, "trend": 8800.15, "fair_value": 9747.266026, "relative_strength": -98.80575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.632021, "energy": 67.205915, "activity_lines": [ 137.72, 137.981818, 2892.161905, 5573.094624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }