{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80af377f-8d1a-4660-8eb2-712527ce0cca", "symbol": "EVN", "name": "Eaton Vance Municipal Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.778, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.211, "architecture_energy": 22.63, "architecture_maturity": 57.232, "architecture_confidence": 76.488, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.42, "rotation_up": 23.4, "upward_expansion": 56.12, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 41.18, "downward_expansion": 22.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.670623, 10.801459, 10.744608, 10.68963 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.68, "trend_reference": 10.649147, "distance_from_trend": 0.002897, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.628247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.07496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004941, "excess_performance": -0.130566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002897, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009083, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006926, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.352401, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 568046, "relative_activity": 1.338368, "balance": 1.352401, "dry_up": 0.960209, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027234, "annualized_volatility": 0.130969, "from_high_reference": -0.047138, "from_low_reference": 0.085577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.649147, "fair_value_reference": 9.628247, "structural_low": 9.946508, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.015965, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012118, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.041539, "worst_return": -0.067748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003873, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062236, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.080278, "worst_return": -0.016808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003453, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.078318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143067, "worst_return": -0.135762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080377, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021386, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031085, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.121534, "energy": 75.975788, "activity_lines": [ 11.023391, 10.902522, 10.71912, 10.67423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.06, "volume": 154878, "typical_volume": 390004.9, "trend": 10.640377, "fair_value": 9.585614, "relative_strength": -3.846571, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.810619, "energy": 72.352939, "activity_lines": [ 11.045416, 10.950528, 10.760042, 10.702635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.69, "volume": 387202, "typical_volume": 394912.9, "trend": 10.650964, "fair_value": 9.599871, "relative_strength": -6.337737, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.817771, "energy": 36.801772, "activity_lines": [ 10.930969, 10.921618, 10.764671, 10.705837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.37, "volume": 520047, "typical_volume": 411598.4, "trend": 10.650235, "fair_value": 9.612895, "relative_strength": -9.864819, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.181873, "energy": 12.843729, "activity_lines": [ 10.726493, 10.831988, 10.739126, 10.68771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.68, "volume": 568046, "typical_volume": 424432.0, "trend": 10.649147, "fair_value": 9.628247, "relative_strength": -10.07496, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.211202, "energy": 22.630195, "activity_lines": [ 10.670623, 10.801459, 10.744608, 10.68963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }