{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80afde52-1e4f-473c-8cc7-acd652d15aac", "symbol": "300032", "name": "Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.533, "architecture_energy": 67.6, "architecture_maturity": 49.641, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 25.94, "upward_expansion": 13.5, "deceleration": 46.7, "rotation_down": 57.78, "downward_expansion": 86.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.524667, 3.618364, 4.074952, 4.467011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.7, "trend_reference": 4.901, "distance_from_trend": -0.245052, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.882949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242261, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.664104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.334532, "excess_performance": -0.341932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.245052, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242261, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294837, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.334532, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104087728, "relative_activity": 0.745522, "balance": 0.452759, "dry_up": 0.795165, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102079, "annualized_volatility": 0.456048, "from_high_reference": -0.433384, "from_low_reference": 0.20915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.901, "fair_value_reference": 4.882949, "structural_low": 3.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.001092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01949, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.465649, "worst_return": -0.402574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.144892, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.14166, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.452703, "worst_return": -0.360294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.181221, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.076374, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.516892, "worst_return": -0.455882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.772, 4.041818, 4.592, 4.873484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.37, "volume": 111223077, "typical_volume": 171312817.35, "trend": 5.080667, "fair_value": 4.943077, "relative_strength": -35.449295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.164705, "energy": 91.531223, "activity_lines": [ 3.614667, 3.868182, 4.436143, 4.758925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.3, "volume": 121373076, "typical_volume": 162200296.4, "trend": 5.017333, "fair_value": 4.924103, "relative_strength": -36.292095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.37336, "energy": 90.356088, "activity_lines": [ 3.476, 3.717636, 4.284714, 4.644043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.53, "volume": 107391131, "typical_volume": 151542552.95, "trend": 4.956667, "fair_value": 4.907308, "relative_strength": -30.092626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.717621, "energy": 84.280423, "activity_lines": [ 3.464667, 3.64, 4.166143, 4.548086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.7, "volume": 104087728, "typical_volume": 139617315.0, "trend": 4.901, "fair_value": 4.882949, "relative_strength": -29.664104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.532915, "energy": 67.600345, "activity_lines": [ 3.524667, 3.618364, 4.074952, 4.467011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }