{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80babf46-fe71-4f20-9a4f-ddb17e081a4d", "symbol": "HLMN", "name": "Hillman Solutions Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 95.133, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 13.664, "architecture_energy": 18.028, "architecture_maturity": 16.04, "architecture_confidence": 61.146, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.66, "rotation_up": 36.09, "upward_expansion": 30.66, "deceleration": 37.84, "rotation_down": 21.96, "downward_expansion": 46.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.36, 8.203636, 8.032667, 8.107892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.22, "trend_reference": 8.378, "distance_from_trend": 0.100501, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.953622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029751, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.549504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.120229, "excess_performance": -0.307683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160266, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120229, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.467873, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11691559, "relative_activity": 1.667057, "balance": 1.467873, "dry_up": 1.036334, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074007, "annualized_volatility": 0.430717, "from_high_reference": -0.15023, "from_low_reference": 0.324713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.378, "fair_value_reference": 8.953622, "structural_low": 6.96, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003659, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.019677, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.159812, "worst_return": -0.204651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.081795, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.098237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155447, "worst_return": -0.227318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01994, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.231439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05, "worst_return": -0.287442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.186047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.422762, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.008, "worst_return": -0.19861, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.136971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"close": 7.97, "volume": 5092663, "typical_volume": 7074829.4, "trend": 8.426, "fair_value": 8.967853, "relative_strength": -17.266696, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.681351, "energy": 9.086885, "activity_lines": [ 8.007333, 7.952182, 7.922952, 8.090731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.87, "volume": 6200252, "typical_volume": 6812183.5, "trend": 8.398, "fair_value": 8.955032, "relative_strength": -18.461144, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.600864, "energy": 16.44864, "activity_lines": [ 7.938667, 7.959818, 7.913095, 8.05486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.22, "volume": 11691559, "typical_volume": 7013291.05, "trend": 8.378, "fair_value": 8.953622, "relative_strength": -8.549504, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.663873, "energy": 18.028171, "activity_lines": [ 8.36, 8.203636, 8.032667, 8.107892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }