{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80bfdf64-0cd5-4d35-8818-d232aafaa974", "symbol": "NDR", "name": "N.D. Rubber Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.302, "architecture_energy": 20.451, "architecture_maturity": 65.977, "architecture_confidence": 94.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.46, "rotation_up": 20.41, "upward_expansion": 52.97, "deceleration": 93.73, "rotation_down": 29.36, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.756667, 1.810364, 1.750905, 1.657381 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.72, "trend_reference": 1.547381, "distance_from_trend": 0.111556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.564149, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099639, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.148589, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.276776, "excess_performance": 0.084451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158467, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.319647, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081486, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.230811, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.276776, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.685842, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1050100, "relative_activity": 0.899748, "balance": 3.685842, "dry_up": 0.664165, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122093, "annualized_volatility": 0.629719, "from_high_reference": -0.277311, "from_low_reference": 0.761952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.547381, "fair_value_reference": 1.564149, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0101, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01679, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.194444, "worst_return": -0.19469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.061462, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.076554, "worst_return": -0.30531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.123548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.031235, "worst_return": -0.442478, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059078, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": 10.42063, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.906511, "energy": 25.157702, "activity_lines": [ 1.794667, 1.868182, 1.724095, 1.628928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.77, "volume": 785600, "typical_volume": 1133070.0, "trend": 1.532675, "fair_value": 1.562396, "relative_strength": 11.072122, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.535223, "energy": 22.400075, "activity_lines": [ 1.779333, 1.844727, 1.740667, 1.645296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.72, "volume": 1050100, "typical_volume": 1167105.0, "trend": 1.547381, "fair_value": 1.564149, "relative_strength": 8.148589, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.302338, "energy": 20.45073, "activity_lines": [ 1.756667, 1.810364, 1.750905, 1.657381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }