{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80c1b462-afa6-4e3a-abee-1759134da8e5", "symbol": "KRO", "name": "Kronos Worldwide Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.167, "architecture_energy": 40.236, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.392, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.04, "rotation_up": 57.46, "upward_expansion": 64.34, "deceleration": 57.28, "rotation_down": 17.29, "downward_expansion": 17.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.060667, 6.752, 6.753933, 6.600744 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.59, "trend_reference": 6.340844, "distance_from_trend": 0.354709, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.879035, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090235, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.716295, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.436706, "excess_performance": 0.311081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.354709, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116107, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090235, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182124, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.317163, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182019, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.436706, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.021956, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3972240, "relative_activity": 2.351576, "balance": 1.021956, "dry_up": 1.567975, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105116, "annualized_volatility": 0.726302, "from_high_reference": -0.01449, "from_low_reference": 1.164553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.340844, "fair_value_reference": 7.879035, "structural_low": 4.778174, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028409, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.020827, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.458404, "worst_return": -0.19838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063311, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.06774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313849, "worst_return": -0.448325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001726, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.146915, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.203498, "worst_return": -0.261264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.046264, "energy": 16.102736, "activity_lines": [ 6.284667, 6.467955, 6.595928, 6.425916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.61, "volume": 1879280, "typical_volume": 1646130.7, "trend": 6.175409, "fair_value": 7.886395, "relative_strength": 6.93426, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.069905, "energy": 13.380576, "activity_lines": [ 6.367333, 6.473221, 6.610363, 6.458462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.02, "volume": 1626041, "typical_volume": 1606279.25, "trend": 6.229225, "fair_value": 7.874617, "relative_strength": -3.644204, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.80102, "energy": 11.096213, "activity_lines": [ 6.268667, 6.372872, 6.561904, 6.448436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.59, "volume": 3972240, "typical_volume": 1689182.15, "trend": 6.340844, "fair_value": 7.879035, "relative_strength": 31.716295, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.16746, "energy": 40.236361, "activity_lines": [ 7.060667, 6.752, 6.753933, 6.600744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }