{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80c3850e-3b80-43cf-b7b8-6b8ebdae4938", "symbol": "MEDN", "name": "Mehadrin Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.298, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.899, "architecture_energy": 62.418, "architecture_maturity": 16.689, "architecture_confidence": 86.79, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.55, "rotation_up": 12.13, "upward_expansion": 12.34, "deceleration": 39.24, "rotation_down": 69.92, "downward_expansion": 88.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 290.353333, 297.483636, 307.448095, 310.49828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 279.8, "trend_reference": 313.893334, "distance_from_trend": -0.108614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 221.005128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.76651, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095084, "excess_performance": -0.123984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108614, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217509, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038846, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1215, "relative_activity": 1.02058, "balance": 0.601675, "dry_up": 0.631877, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074669, "annualized_volatility": 0.250391, "from_high_reference": -0.178509, "from_low_reference": 0.035913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 313.893334, "fair_value_reference": 221.005128, "structural_low": 270.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.003379, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.026053, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.1399, "worst_return": -0.106246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.070275, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.014719, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.265306, "worst_return": -0.147482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052541, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009099, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.252567, "worst_return": -0.153957, "sufficient": true }, { 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317.750001, "fair_value": 216.248076, "relative_strength": -13.048298, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.507949, "energy": 15.344635, "activity_lines": [ 312.786667, 317.354545, 318.631429, 318.380431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 292.0, "volume": 2132, "typical_volume": 1336.7, "trend": 317.746667, "fair_value": 217.301282, "relative_strength": -14.571485, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.983071, "energy": 49.863784, "activity_lines": [ 304.073333, 312.438182, 316.14, 316.71914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 299.7, "volume": 415, "typical_volume": 1217.7, "trend": 317.18, "fair_value": 218.248717, "relative_strength": -13.432882, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.256417, "energy": 56.117135, "activity_lines": [ 300.586667, 309.749091, 314.536667, 315.554839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 300.7, "volume": 786, "typical_volume": 1175.1, "trend": 316.6, "fair_value": 219.247435, "relative_strength": -14.618116, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.841977, "energy": 59.827164, "activity_lines": [ 299.42, 307.354545, 313.084762, 314.491613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 290.7, "volume": 593, "typical_volume": 1146.8, "trend": 315.796667, "fair_value": 220.180128, "relative_strength": -14.744977, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.921066, "energy": 60.50293, "activity_lines": [ 296.22, 303.129091, 310.744286, 312.820646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 279.8, "volume": 1215, "typical_volume": 1190.5, "trend": 313.893334, "fair_value": 221.005128, "relative_strength": -17.76651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.899013, "energy": 62.417775, "activity_lines": [ 290.353333, 297.483636, 307.448095, 310.49828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }